Suns vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 1

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Phoenix Suns logo on the left and Denver Nuggets logo on the right
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 01, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -4.5 favorites vs. the Suns
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
  • Monday, May 1, 2023 at 10:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Phoenix Suns visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Suns vs Nuggets Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Suns are 44-42 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 48-39 against the spread.


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Suns vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phoenix Suns+4.5 -115O 228.5 -115+145
Denver Nuggets -4.5 -105U 228.5 -115-175

Nuggets vs Suns Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Monday‘s game with 62.2% confidence.

Nuggets vs Suns Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.1% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Suns and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 47 away games (+17.29 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+17.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 54 of their last 89 games (+16.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 away games (+12.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 51 of their last 87 games (+11.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 60 of their last 84 games (+32.82 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 39 games at home (+23.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.01 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 games (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 44-42 (-2.2 Units / -2.27% ROI).

  • 49-39 against the Moneyline (-0.65 Units / -0.29% ROI)
  • 46-39 against the Over for game total points (+3.1 Units / 3.2% ROI)
  • 39-46 against the Under for game total points (-11.6 Units / -11.98% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 48-39 (+5.1 Units / 5.27% ROI).

  • 58-30 against the Moneyline (+0.1 Units / 0.04% ROI)
  • 42-45 against the Over for game total points (-7.5 Units / -7.75% ROI)
  • 45-42 against the Under for game total points (-1.2 Units / -1.24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 84 games (-43.52 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 38 games (-18.00 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 42 of their last 78 games (-17.90 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 86 games (-16.50 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 38 games (-16.05 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 93 games (-26.08 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 93 games (-25.30 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 90 games (-21.18 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 82 games (-17.54 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 93 games (-16.05 Units / -15% ROI)

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Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Suns are 43-10 (.811) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .546

The Suns are 34-11 (.756) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Suns are 52-17 (.754) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Suns are 63-22 (.741) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Nuggets are 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Denver Nuggets are 42-13 (.764) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 14.8 turnovers per game (2,433 turnovers/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for third-highest among NBA teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 69-24 (.742) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 51.1 rebounds per game (8,388 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th-lowest among NBA teams.

The Nuggets are 48-18 (.727) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. SunsMonday‘s Game, May 1

  • Denver Nuggets – No Injuries Reported
  • Phoenix Suns – No Injuries Reported

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (3,051 assists/ 1,561 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (3,196 assists/ 1,528 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (4,479 assists/ 2,170 TOs) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (2,145 assists/ 1,107 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (5,378/10,546) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (3,554/7,136) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,723/7,286) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets have averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 7.6 steals per game (1,804 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Suns have 1,804 steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Suns have averaged 5.2 blocks per game (428 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Suns have averaged 5.3 blocks per game (432 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (496 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (673 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (329 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (500 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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