- The N Illinois is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Toledo
- The Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Toledo Rockets (4-2) visit Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies (4-2) on Oct. 19 in DeKalb, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
N Illinois is a betting favorite in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Over/Under is 43.5 total points.
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Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Toledo | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +120 |
| Northern Illinois | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -105 | -145 |
Toledo vs Northern Illinois Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Northern Illinois will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and N Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Northern Illinois Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Northern Illinois will cover the spread with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 3% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+2.70 Units / 2% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Northern Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Northern Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+12.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Northern Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- Northern Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+4.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Northern Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Northern Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Toledo is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 1.05% ROI
- Toledo is 5-1 when betting the Over for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI
- Toledo is 1-5 when betting the Under for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
Northern Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
N Illinois is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 29.01% ROI).
- Northern Illinois is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 92% ROI
- Northern Illinois is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -19.7% ROI
- Northern Illinois is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 12.12% ROI
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Northern Illinois
Toledo is 15-3 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526
Toledo is 12-3 (.800) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .628
Toledo is 10-2 (.833) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
Toledo is 10-5 (.667) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .397
Northern Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Northern Illinois is 6-5 (.545) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .383
Northern Illinois is 11-5 (.688) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
Northern Illinois is 7-3 (.700) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552
Northern Illinois is 9-2 (.818) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .660
Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Northern Illinois
Toledo’s offense has thrown for 1,629 passing yards in 6 games (271.5 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 157.2 passing yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s offense has averaged 2.7 passing TDs per game this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 1.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo RBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Toledo WRs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards last week– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Toledo TEs have 7 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo’s offense has thrown for 1,629 passing yards in 6 games (271.5 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 157.2 passing yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.
Northern Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Northern Illinois RBs have averaged 167.5 rushing yards per game (1,005/6) this season– 18th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 128.9
Northern Illinois WRs have averaged just 7.5 receptions per game (45/6) this season– T-10th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6
Northern Illinois RBs have averaged 5.4 Yards per Carry (3,018 yards/561 carries) since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Northern Illinois WRs have been targeted 11.8 times per game (71/6) this season– 8th-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.5
Northern Illinois Skill Players have averaged 15.5 yards per reception (637 yards/41 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (344 completions/615 attempts) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Toledo has tackled opponents for a loss on 40 of 209 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) this season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (344 completions/615 attempts) since the 2023 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 61%
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 44% (28 completions/64 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (219 completions/411 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Northern Illinois Huskies Defensive Stats & Trends
Northern Illinois sacked opposing QBs on 26% of pass attempts (6/23) last week– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Northern Illinois has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 17 carries (8.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.1
Northern Illinois sacked opposing QBs on 26% of pass attempts (6/23) last week– best in FBS; Average: 7%
Northern Illinois has allowed 121.8 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 174.1
Northern Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 8 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
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