- The White Sox are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland
- White Sox starting pitcher: Dylan Cease
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-125) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The White Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Twins vs White Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 17-13 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 13-17 ATS.
Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -105 | +105 |
| White Sox | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -115 | -125 |
Twins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.05 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Robert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+12.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
White Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
White Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
White Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
White Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Louie Varland | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Dylan Cease | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -110 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 30 games (+4.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+3.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.60 Units / 17% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 17-13 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 12.03% ROI).
- 17-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -2.99% ROI
- 12-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -13.42% ROI
- 15-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 5.3% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 13-17 against the Run Line (-7.05 Units / -18.17% ROI).
- 9-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.95 Units / -36.16% ROI
- 15-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 6.25% ROI
- 12-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -13.83% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 62% (149/240) against Kyle Wright in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Kyle Wright induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 136 opportunities (19%) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Wright located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (255/521) of the time in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 57% (108/188) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has walked 93 of 888 batters (10%) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strike rate of just 62% (2,309/3,716) since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .195 (153-for-784) against Dylan Cease since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 93rd Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 61% of the time (86/140) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Twins are just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-30 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 42-14 (.750) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The White Sox are just 2-5 (.286) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The White Sox are just 10-73 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The White Sox are just 6-4 (.600) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The White Sox are just 6-6 (.500) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .105 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .265 (219 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Twins are batting just .193 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .625 (219 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .736.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .462 (123 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .655.
White Sox hitters have drawn 45 walks in 896 PA’s (5%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The White Sox have won just 51% of home games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 79%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 81 of 1,097 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The White Sox have allowed 2.40 runs per game (72/30) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
White Sox pitchers have walked 129 of 1,202 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox pitchers have allowed a run 53% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
White Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Illness, D15
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- Reynaldo López (White Sox): Bicep, Day-to-Day
- Yoán Moncada (White Sox): Back, D10
- Roman González (White Sox): Shoulder, D10
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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