- Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the overwhelming betting underdog at +400.
- Jailton Almeida is the heavy betting favorite at -550.
Two UFC heavyweight contenders will headline the fight night inside Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, this Saturday, May 13, as No. 9-ranked challenger Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-4) faces the No. 12-ranked Jailton Almeida (18-2). These two feared finishers are vying to improve their UFC odds of moving up the rankings and continue their path for a title shot.
North Carolina we're comin' for ya! 🔥
— UFC (@ufc) May 8, 2023
Rozenstruik, although he has the higher place in the heavyweight rankings, is the overwhelming betting underdog in UFC betting odds at +400. Almeida, who is three places below Rozenstruik, is the heavy favorite at -550 to walk away victorious.
There are two primary reasons for this massive discrepancy in the odds between Ronzenstriuk and Almeida – their UFC record and latest form. Rozenstruik already has four losses under the Las Vegas-based promotion and is 2-2 in his last four fights, while Almeida is still undefeated in his four fights with all finishes.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Recent Fight Results
Jairzinho Rozenstruik was an undefeated prospect when he was signed by the UFC in 2019, as he had six wins with five TKO/KOs. “Bigi Boy“ immediately made his mark in the division by winning his first four fights under the UFC via stoppages. He TKO’ed Junior Albini in his February 2019 debut, then knocked out Allen Crowder, Andrei Arlovski, and Alistair Overeem to put the whole weight class on notice.
Because of this hot streak, the Suriname-born fighter was pitted against Francis Ngannou in May 2020. Ngannou displayed that his power was superior to Rozenstruik as he knocked him out in just 20 seconds in the opening round. This devastating knockout was Rozenstruik’s first MMA loss in 11 bouts, but he rebounded with a second-round TKO of former champion Junior Dos Santos in August 2020.
Unfortunately, the American Top Team representative failed to sustain successive wins as he suffered another defeat in February 2021, a unanimous decision loss to Ciryl Gane. Following his second career setback, Rozenstriuk recorded two wins and two losses from his four previous fights, winning against Augusto Sakai in June 2021 via first-round TKO before receiving back-to-back losses from Curtis Blaydes (unanimous decision in September 2021) and Alexander Volkov (first-round TKO in June 2022).
The 35-year-old is coming off a 23-second knockout of Chris Daukaus in December 2022 to redeem himself and remain a relevant name in the heavyweight division. A victory for Rozenstruik this Saturday would guarantee him an opposition from any of the top five contenders in the weight class and possibly inch closer to earning his maiden career title shot.
Bigi Boy only needs one shot to turn the lights off 😳
— UFC (@ufc) May 8, 2023
Jailton Almeida Recent Fight Results
Jailton Almeida began his MMA career in 2012, fighting in various South American and Brazilian promotions. In his stint outside the UFC, Almeida racked up 13 wins (all finishes) and two losses, culminating in winning the Thunder Fight Light Heavyweight title. This impressive resume led the Brazilian to participate in Dana White’s Contender Series, where he appeared in Season 5, Week 3 of the competition.
“Malhadinho“ fought Nasrudin Nasrudinov in the main event and got the job done with a second-round rear-naked choke submission. Following this incredible performance, Almeida earned a spot on the UFC roster and debuted in the Octagon in February 2022 against Danilo Marques. The 31-year-old made quick work of Marques with an opening-round TKO finish to announce his arrival in the promotion.
In his second bout in the UFC in May 2022, Almeida moved up to the heavyweight division and was matched with Parker Porter, thus picking up another victory by rear-naked choke in the second round of their clash. Four months later, in September 2022, the fighter from Salvador, Brazil, tallied his third UFC win with another first-round submission finish over Anton Turkalj to extend his unbeaten streak under the Dana White-headed MMA organization.
So far, Almeida’s biggest career win came against Shamil Abdurakhimov in January 2023, where he TKO’ed the veteran in the second round of their UFC 283 clash. It was the Brazilian’s fourth win, and he aims to keep his streak alive this Saturday against the heavy hitter Rozenstruik and barge inside the top 10 rankings of the heavyweight division.
#UFC283 Official Scorecard: Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Jailton Almeida 👇
— UFC News (@UFCNews) January 22, 2023
Rozenstruik vs. Almeida: Tale of the Tape
Rozenstruik vs. Almeida: Fight Analysis
The tale of the tape between Rozenstruik and Almeida is almost identical, but the latter will still enjoy an inch of height and reach advantages, plus a two-and-a-half leg reach upper hand. Also, the Brazilian has the better record of 18 wins and two losses compared to the Suriname native, who already has four losses in his 17 MMA professional fights.
In the significant strikes department, Almeida also has the better numbers of 4.19 significant strikes landed per minute for a 64% rate (versus Rozenstruik’s 2.93 significant strikes landed per minute for 46%) and 0.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute (compared to Rozenstruik’s 3.23 output). However, the defensive percentage favors “Bigi Boy” at 45% against “Malhadinho’s” 10%.
This huge difference on paper is also evident in the grappling as Almedia leads in takedown average per 15 minutes at 6.73 (Rozenstruik with 0), takedown accuracy of 70% (Rozenstruik with 0), and submission average per 15 minutes of 2.24 (Rozenstruik with 0). Takedown defense is the only category in the grappling department where Rozenstruik leads Almeida with 75% compared to the latter’s 50%.
It is apparent that Almeida’s clear advantage is in the grappling battle, and he should maximize it to nullify the power that Rozenstruik possesses. “Bigi Boy” has 12 TKO/KO finishes in his 13 wins, so his power is very evident, and the Brazilian should force a position in the clinch or drag him down the mat to open for submission opportunities.
Rozenstruik should immediately impose his power and gain respect from Almeida by throwing the big punches early to make his Brazilian foe second guess his attempt to shoot a takedown. Additionally, he needs to look out for the level change that Almeida might do, especially early into the fight to prevent the submission maneuvers and eventually a submission finish.
Official Prediction: Submission victory for Jailton Almeida.
See the entire UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida odds and wagers here.