- Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier have the same betting odds at -110.
- Vettori and Cannonier both are coming off bounce-back wins in their previous fights.
- Both Vettori and Cannonier are former title challengers.
A top-level UFC main event will be featured this Saturday, June 17, inside the APEX Center in Las Vegas, as No.2-ranked contender Marvin Vettori (19-6-1) takes on No.3-ranked challenger Jared Cannonier (16-6) to potentially get another crack for the 185-pound title and be a perennial favorite in online sports betting. Vettori and Cannonier are fresh off bounce-back victories from their previous bouts.
— UFC (@ufc) June 12, 2023
Both fighters have already sustained six losses in their MMA careers, which is why both have the same betting odds of -110 in BetMGM’s online sportsbook. Vettori is coming off a convincing unanimous decision win against Roman Dolidze in March 2023, while Cannonier barely got the split decision victory over Sean Strickland in a highly debatable result from their December 2022 match.
A significant factor to consider for bettors is the huge age gap between the two fighters, with Vettori being 10 years younger at 29 years old and currently in his prime, against the aging Cannonier at 39 years old, who is arguably well past his immaculate fighting career already.
Marvin Vettori Recent Fight Results
Marvin Vettori was a former Venator FC middleweight champion, with a record of 10 wins and two losses, when he was signed by the UFC in 2016. He made a successful debut in August 2016, when he submitted Alberto Uda in the opening round via a guillotine choke to announce his arrival in the promotion. Since then, he has appeared in 13 UFC fights, winning eight, losing four, and receiving a draw.
Included in those triumphs were victories over notable names of Jack Hermansson, Kevin Holland, and Paulo Costa, while his losses were courtesy of Antonio Carlos Jr., Israel Adesanya (twice), and Robert Whittaker. His lone stalemate result was against Omari Akhmedov. “The Italian Dream” once competed for the title against Adesanya in their June 2021 rematch, but he was unanimously beaten by the “Last Stylebender.”
— UFC (@ufc) June 12, 2023
Jared Cannonier Recent Fight Results
Jared Cannonier was an undefeated heavyweight prospect with seven wins and six finishes when he joined the UFC in 2015. That unbeaten streak was snapped quickly in his promotional debut after suffering a first-round knockout to Shawn Jordan. “The Killa Gorilla” promptly bounced back with a first-round knockout win of his own over Cyril Asker. Following these two fights in the heavyweight division, he went down in weight class.
Since then, Cannonier has fought five times in the light heavyweight division and eight times in the middleweight division, thus racking up a 8-5 record. Some of his big victories from this run were against Ion Cutelaba, David Branch, Anderson Silva, Jack Hermansson, Kelvin Gastelum, and Derek Brunson. The MMA Lab representative challenged Israel Adesanya for the middleweight strap in July 2022, but like Vettori, the champion unanimously defeated him.
A split decision to close the year!
— UFC (@ufc) December 18, 2022
Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier: Tale of the Tape
Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier: Fight Analysis
The tale of the tape slightly favors Cannonier, as he holds 3.5 inches of reach, half-inch of leg reach, and a higher finishing rate of 19% against Vettori. However, the youth and height advantage is on the side of the No.3-ranked challenger, who is an inch taller and 10 years younger than the No.4 contender.
In terms of fighting style, it will be another classic clash between a striker and a grappler, as Vettori brings his grappling expertise through his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background, while Cannonier will display his power through his striking, specifically through his punches. These fighting styles are evident in their method of victory, with Vettori’s finishes coming off submissions and Cannonier having a 67% TKO/KO rate.
Despite the stylistic difference between the top two middleweight contenders, their significant strikes landed per minute are almost similar, with Vettori’s 4.38 significant landed per minute (44%) and 3.65 significant strikes absorbed per minute (59%) against Cannonier’s four significant strikes landed per minute (50%) and 3.86 significant strikes absorbed per minute (61%).
The grappling department is a different story because the Italian dominates in every category against the American. Vettori has a takedown average per 15 minutes of 1.77 (against Cannonier’s 0.17); a takedown accuracy of 44% (compared to Cannonier’s 25%); a takedown defense of 75% (versus Cannnonier’s 64%); and a submission average per 15 minutes of 0.52 (over Cannonier’s 0).
Vettori’s key to victory is maximizing his grappling advantage to avoid the power of Cannonier and dragging him to his territory down the mat. In addition, the 29-year-old can exhaust significant energy from his opponent by constantly threatening the clinch and looking for submission opportunities to force the 39-year-old to defend rigorously.
Once a takedown is secured, the Xtreme Couture representative can maneuver through various submission attempts and pour down the ground and pound. However, he needs to grind his way for these favorable positions because the match starts on their feet, which means he needs to avoid the one-strike power of Cannonier. Speaking of the MMA Lab athlete, he should immediately look for an early finish.
This nuclear power by Cannonier is evident in his wins in the 185-pound division, where he scored four stoppages in six victories. Finding his range is also key in setting up his favorite combinations, especially his punches. But he needs to be cautious when throwing these shots because Vettori can do a level change and attempt a takedown.
Once he lands a power shot on his Italian foe, Cannonier should go all-out in his attack by raining down more punches to possibly finish the fight immediately, because if he allows Vettori to recover, then it would certainly favor the 29-year-old because of his durability, high-octane cardio, and relentless pressure when fighting.
Regardless of this power by Cannonier, it is the first time that Vettori is dealing with an opponent with such enormous force in their strike. In fact, he already secured victories over Kevin Holland and Paulo Costa by utilizing his grappling; thus, expect the same fight plan against the “Killa Gorilla” this Saturday.
Official Prediction: Unanimous decision for Marvin Vettori.
See the entire UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier odds and wagers here.