UFC Jacksonville: Emmett vs. Topuria Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

min read
Josh Emmett, right, in action against Michael Johnson during their mixed martial arts bout at UFC Fight Night.
(AP Photo/Gregory Payan)
Anatoly Pimentel @AnatolyPimentel Jun 20, 2023, 4:19 PM
  • Josh Emmett is the betting underdog at +240.
  • Ilia Topuria is the betting favorite at -300.
  • This is another classic battle between a striker and a grappler.

The UFC returns to Jacksonville, Florida, this Saturday, June 24, with an exciting featherweight match, as No. 5-ranked contender Josh Emmett (18-3) clashes with the No. 9-ranked challenger Ilia Topuria (13-0) in the main event of the fight night. This is the comeback event of the Las Vegas-based promotion inside the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena since UFC 273 in April 2022.

Because of his undefeated record of 13 wins with 12 finishes, Topuria is the reasonable favorite in UFC betting odds at -300 against the former interim title challenger Emmett, who takes the betting underdog role at +240. Apart from the immaculate record, the 26-year-old is the favorite over the 38-year-old, as the latter came from a loss in his most recent bout.

Josh Emmett Recent Fight Results

Josh Emmett was an undefeated fighter with nine victories, including five stoppages, when he joined the UFC in 2016. He made his debut versus Jon Tuck and eked out a split decision nod from the judges and has since competed in 11 fights, where he accumulated a record of eight wins and three losses en route to an interim title opportunity in the 145-pound division.

The Team Alpha Male affiliated fighter holds a win against notable opponents Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson, Shane Burgos, Dan Ige, and Calvin Kattar. Emmett’s three defeats in his career occurred in the UFC and were courtesy of Desmond Green, Jeremy Stephens, and Yair Rodriguez (for the UFC Interim Featherweight title)— the 38-year-old looks to get back into the winning column against Topuria and derail his hype train.

Ilia Topuria Recent Fight Results

Ilia Topuria is among the fastest rising stars in the UFC today because of his relentless fighting style and undefeated record of 13 wins with 12 finishes. Before he was signed by the UFC in 2020, Topuria had an impressive record of eight wins and eight finishes (seven submissions and one knockout). Because of this incredible showing in other promotions, he earned himself a spot on the UFC roster.

Topuria immediately made a splash in the world’s leading MMA organization by dominantly winning all five fights. “El Matador” unanimously beat Youssef Zalal and knocked out Damon Jackson, Ryan Hall, and Jai Herbert before adding Bryce Mitchell to his list of victims by submitting him in his latest bout. The 26-year-old Georgian wants to extend his winning streak to 14 against Emmett this Saturday for his first UFC main event.

Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria: Tale of the Tape

Josh EmmettIlia Topuria
Age 38 26
Height 5'65'7"
Reach 70 inches69 inches
Leg Reach39.5 inches37 inches
Record 18-313-0
Fighting StyleStriker Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
Finishing Rate44%92%

Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria: Fight Analysis

There is little difference in height and reach between Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria because they are only separated by an inch in those categories. However, Emmett will carry a prime advantage in leg reach, where a two-and-a-half inch advantage separates him from Topuria. Another upper hand for the 38-year-old is his wealth of experience fighting inside the Octagon.

The Team Alpha Male representative already has 12 bouts under the UFC banner, compared to Topuria, who only has five fights so far in the promotion. This experience also comes with a downside, considering that Emmett has sustained wear and tear on his body through major injuries, such as multiple facial fractures and an ACL tear. These factors are not yet on full display, as Emmett still managed to pull off five wins in his last seven fights.

But the undefeated Topuria wants to expose Emmett’s age and battle-tested body with his relentless approach to fighting that is based heavily in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The Climent Club fighter’s favorite method of victory is submission, at 62%. Don’t count out the Georgian’s knockout power, though, because he also has a decent TKO/KO rate of 31%.

Emmett’s path to victory is to keep the fight on their feet because he sports a striking base style, allowing him to finish 33% of his fights by TKO/KO. He holds a better significant strikes landed per minute number of 4.17 against Topuria’s 3.32. This way, he can fully display his power and avoid any submission attempts from Topuria.

Additionally, he can maximize his leg reach advantage over the 26-year-old by throwing more kicks to keep him at bay. On the other hand, Topuria will want to double down on the idea of dragging Emmett down the mat to open up opportunities for submission techniques because he is way ahead in all areas of the grappling department.

“El Matador” has a takedown average per 15 minutes of 2.45 (against Emmett’s 1.07), a 46% takedown accuracy (compared to Emmett’s 37%), a takedown defense of 92% (over Emmett’s 58%), and a submission average of 2.45 (versus Emmett’s 0.1). These statistical numbers show a great preview of Topuria’s fight plan come Saturday night.

Apart from this superiority in the grappling department, Topuria’s hunger and desire to climb up the rankings would be another factor in securing a dominant performance and victory. In his previous fights inside the Octagon, he has shown a relentless and ruthless aura, making him a fast-rising star and a future title contender. If Topuria continues to employ and execute his strategy, it will be a quick night in the office for him.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Ilia Topuria.

See the entire UFC Jacksonville: Emmett vs. Topuria odds and wagers here.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Anatoly Pimentel

Read More @AnatolyPimentel

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.