UFC London: Aspinall vs. Tybura Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

UFC returns to London this Saturday, July 22, inside the O2 Arena, as two heavyweight contenders slug it out to further boost their UFC odds of earning an opportunity for a title shot. No. 5-ranked Tom Aspinall faces the No. 10-ranked contender Marcin Tybura in the main event, where Aspinall is the heavy betting favorite at -500. Either of the two could face reigning heavyweight champion Jon Jones in a future title fight.

Across the pond we go ✈️🇬🇧

Right back at it this week with a battle of top 🔟 heavyweights! #UFCLondon pic.twitter.com/0eAEs7AIby

— UFC (@ufc) July 17, 2023

In contrast to Aspinall, Tybura is tagged as the overwhelming underdog (+360) despite riding a two-fight winning streak and winning seven of his last eight bouts. There are two primary reasons for Aspinall and Tybura’s betting roles: Aspinall has a perfect 100% finishing rate in all his wins, and he has the full support of his fellow countrymen in England, who will surely pack the arena.

Tom Aspinall Recent Fight Results

Tom Aspinall is coming off his first UFC loss in July 2022, as Curtis Blaydes won their fight via TKO due to injury 15 seconds into the match. He sustained a knee injury after attempting a leg kick which caused a tear to his MCL and meniscus, plus damage to his ACL. This injury has forced him out of action for a full year to recover and rehab.

Before this injury that resulted in his third professional MMA loss, the Team Kaobon representative established himself as a notable contender in the heavyweight division by winning all his Octagon bouts and scoring stoppage wins against Alexander Volkov, Serghei Spivac, Andrei Arlovski, Alan Baudot, and Jake Collier.

Tom Aspinall has ARRIVED 💪 #UFCLondon pic.twitter.com/GUVWxBCpW5

— UFC (@ufc) March 19, 2022

Marcin Tybura Recent Fight Results

Marcin Tybura is a UFC veteran who had a rough start in his Octagon campaign. The Polish fighter debuted in April 2016 and suffered five losses in his first nine fights under the Dana White-headed promotion. “Tybur” was defeated by Tim Johnson, Fabricio Werdum, Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Augusto Sakai. His four wins were against Viktor Pesta, Luis Henrique, Andrei Arlovski, and Stefan Struve.

The former M-1 Challenge heavyweight champion experienced a renaissance in his career in March 2020, winning seven of his last eight fights. Tybura’s lone loss in the current stretch was courtesy of Volkov in October 2021. The 37-year-old has picked up victories over Spivac, Maxim Grishin, Ben Rothwell, Greg Hardy, and Walt Harris. Tybura’s two latest wins came at the expense of Alexander Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov.

#UFCVegas68 Official Result: Marcin Tybura (@MarcinTybura 30-27, 29-28, 29-28) defeats Blagoy Imavov by Unanimous Decision

— UFC News (@UFCNews) February 5, 2023

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura: Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura: Fight Analysis

On paper, Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura have almost identical attributes, as only two inches separate them in height and leg reach, with Aspinall being the taller fighter but Tybura enjoying a little longer leg reach. Both have the same length in reach at 78 inches, but the Englishman is seven years younger at 30 compared to the Polish contender, who is already 37.

Aspinall holds the better record of 12 wins and only three losses against the 24 wins and seven losses of Tybura. Additionally, the No. 5-ranked contender flexes his 100% finishing rate in all his fights versus the 62% of the No. 10-ranked contender. These finishes by the two heavyweights were a mix of TKO/KOs and submissions.

Stylistically, both are well-rounded fighters who can compete in the striking and grappling departments, evident in their statistics. Aspinall leads in both categories with 7.41 significant strikes landed per minute (65%), 2.87 significant strikes absorbed per minute (64%), four takedown average per 15 minutes, 100% takedown accuracy, 100% takedown defense, and two submission average per 15 minutes.

Tybura’s numbers aren’t far behind, with 3.55 significant strikes landed per minute (48%), 3.31 significant strikes landed per minute (55%), 1.39 takedown average per 15 minutes, 33% takedown accuracy, 79% takedown defense, and 0.07 submission average per 15 minutes. Along with these numbers, “Tybur” will carry a ton of experience from his 17 bouts under the UFC, with over 12 minutes of average fight time.

This heavyweight clash is a battle between a pressure fighter and a knockout artist, as Aspinall brings his relentless and constant pressure against the one-hit knockout power of Tybura. Aspinall maximizes his forward-moving pressure with welterweight-like movement and an unpredictable offensive arsenal that includes both the striking and grappling departments.

On the other hand, Tybura is known for his knockout power. Although he has decent grappling and wrestling that is good enough to defend takedowns and occasional takedown attempts, he excels more on the striking exchanges. The Polish fighter can instantly change the complexity and outcome of a fight with a single punch or kick.

With his youth, pressure, and well-rounded approach, there is no doubt that Aspinall has all the tools to beat Tybura in this upcoming match. The only point of concern for him is his approach going into the fight, especially after coming off a knee injury. Questions of Aspinall being gun shy of throwing kicks will be answered during the bout, but expect Tybura to target and exploit that once-compromised leg by employing more kicks.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Tom Aspinall.

See the entire UFC London: Aspinall vs. Tybura odds and wagers here.