- Jessica Andrade is the favorite at -200.
- Erin Blanchfield is the underdog at +160.
- Andrade currently ranks third in the division, while Blanchfield sits at the number ten spot.
UFC action shifts back inside the APEX Center in Las Vegas, where two top-ranked women’s flyweight contenders battle it out as No. 3-ranked contender Jessica Andrade (24-9) faces No. 10-ranked challenger Erin Blanchfield (10-1) for a chance to increase their UFC odds of getting a title shot.
Jessica Andrade will replace Taila Santos in the UFC Fight Night main event Feb. 18 in Las Vegas and will face top prospect Erin Blanchfield.
Santos’ cornermen were denied visas multiple times, Santos’ manager Tiago Okamura told @marcraimondi. pic.twitter.com/eFV7wSO0s8
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) February 12, 2023
Blanchfield’s original opponent was No. 1-ranked contender Talia Santos, but due to personal issues, she was removed from the main event, and Andrade stepped in to replace her. Blanchfield and Andrade are on a hot streak, with the former riding a seven-fight winning streak and the latter enjoying three successive victories.
The Brazilian is the UFC betting favorite at -200 against the young American, who takes the underdog role at +160 despite having longer consecutive wins.
Jessica Andrade Recent Fight Results
Jessica Andrade has piled up nine wins (all finishes) and two losses before the UFC signed her in 2013. The Brazilian was rudely welcomed by Liz Carmouche in her promotional debut in July 2013 with a second-round TKO loss. But that defeat didn’t deter Andrade, as she went on a three-fight streak.
“Bate Estaca” picked up victories over Rosi Sexton, Raquel Pennington and Larissa Pacheco before sustaining her second UFC loss to Marion Reneau. Andrade quickly bounced back with a win against Sarah Moras; however, Raquel Pennigton got one back in their September 2015 rematch.
This setback was Andrade’s sign of moving down in the strawweight division, and she made a dream start in her 115-pound debut against Jessica Penne in June 2016 with a second-round TKO. She followed it up with two more wins over Joanne Wood and Angela Hill to earn the right to challenge Joana Jedrzejczyk for the strawweight title.
Unfortunately, the 31-year-old was unanimously beaten by Jedrzejczyk in May 2017. Andrade, though, didn’t stop her quest from being a champion and she racked up three victories over Claudia Gadelha, Tecia Torres and Karolina Kowalkiewicz to obtain another world title shot, this time against Rose Namajunas in May 2019.
The Brazilian star maximized her second title opportunity by knocking out Namajunas in the second round via a power slam and realized her dream of becoming a champion. However, Andrade’s reign as the 115-pound champion was short-lived after Zhang Weili TKO’ed her in the August 2019 title defense.
Following the title loss to Weili, Andrade suffered another close defeat to Rose Namajunas via split decision in July 2020, which made her jump to the women’s flyweight division. The Parana Vale Tudo athlete scored a first-round knockout of Katlyn Chookagian in her 125-pound debut fight in October 2020. That huge win was Andrade’s ticket to challenge Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight title in April 2021.
Shevchenko was too much for Andrade to handle and yielded a second-round TKO loss via elbow strikes. Since then, Andrade started a revenge tour, stringing up three consecutive wins over Cynthia Calvillo, Amanda Lemos and Lauren Murphy to stay in the hunt for another world title opportunity.
Erin Blanchfield Recent Fight Results
Erin Blanchfield was a standout in other MMA organizations before joining the UFC in 2021. She racked up six wins, including three finishes and one loss, before his promotional debut in September 2021. The 23-year-old’s maiden fight with the Las Vegas-based promotion was against Sarah Alpher, and she passed the test with a unanimous decision win.
Three months later, Blanchfield scored another unanimous decision victory over Miranda Maverick in December 2021 to improve her record to eight wins and one loss. In 2022, “Cold Blooded” competed in two more fights and collected two submission triumphs to secure her spot in the top ten rankings of the women’s flyweight division.
First, she stopped J.J. Aldrich in the second round of their June 2022 bout via Guillotine Choke, and then she gifted Molly McCann a first-round Kimura finish in their November 2022 showdown. The last two wins have extended Blanchfield’s win tally to ten and stretched her active streak to seven. A massive win for the New Jersey native over Andrade this weekend could give her name a significant push-up in the rankings.
Andrade vs. Blanchfield: Tale of the Tape and Fight Analysis
The tale of the tape favors Erin Blanchfield as she will be enjoying three inches of height advantage and four inches of reach advantage at 5-foot-4 and 66 inches of frame against Jessica Andrade, who stands at 5-foot-1 and has 62 inches of reach. Additionally, the American is eight years younger at 23 compared to the Brazilian, who is already 31.
Stylistically, it would be a classic striker versus grappler match-up because Andrade is a feared knockout artist, while Blanchfield is a submission specialist. This is evident in their statistical numbers, where Andrade lands more significant strikes per minute at 6.80 (51% accuracy rate) against Blanchfield’s 5.79 (57% accuracy rate).
Defensively though, Blanchfield absorbs fewer strikes per minute at 2.45 (61% defensive rate) compared to Andrade, who receives 5.26 per minute (54% defensive rate). Blanchfield’s numbers are way ahead of Andrade’s in the grappling department and are visibly better as she leads in the four major categories.
“Cold Blooded” flaunts a 4.00 takedown average per 15 minutes (equivalent to 68%) in contrast to “Bate Estaca’s” 2.72 (equal to 55%). Blanchfield’s takedown defense is slightly better at 75% compared to Andrade’s 73%, and lastly, the 23-year-old has a 1.4 submission average per 15 minutes, while the 31-year-old only has 0.4.
Despite the vast difference in the grappling numbers, the wealth of experience that Jessica Andrade will play a big factor in this women’s flyweight match as she faced the toughest names across three divisions. Her forward pressure could also affect Blanchfield’s game plan of shooting a takedown against her.
The strength and power difference among them is also enormous, with Andrade possessing the one-strike power that can put Blanchfield to sleep, plus the former’s wrestling and takedown defense are good enough to stuff the latter’s attempts of taking the match down the mat.
Official Prediction: TKO/KO victory for Jessica Andrade.
See the entire Andrade vs. Blanchfield odds and wagers here.
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