Virginia vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 15

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Louisville head coach Kenny Payne argues with a game official during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023.
(AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 15, 2023, 11:09 AM
  • Virginia (19-4) is a -15.5 point favorite vs Louisville (3-22)
  • Total (Over/Under): 127.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPNU

The Virginia Cavaliers (19-4) visit KFC Yum! Center to take on the Louisville Cardinals (3-22) on Feb. 15. Tip off is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Louisville.

Virginia is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-110).

The Virginia vs. Louisville Over/Under is 127.5 total points.

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Virginia vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia-15.5 -110O 127.5 -110-2000
Louisville +15.5 -110U 127.5 -110+950

Virginia vs Louisville Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 76.1% confidence.

Virginia vs Louisville Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 55.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Louisville, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Bet now on Louisville vs Virginia and all games with BetMGM


  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+15.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+1.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has gone 10-12 against the spread this college basketball season (-3.2 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 15-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 12.38% ROI
  • 13-10 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 7.91% ROI
  • 10-13 when betting the Under for -4.3 Units / -17% ROI

Louisville Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Louisville has gone 9-16 against the spread this college basketball season (-8.6 Units / -31.27% ROI).

  • 3-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.9 Units / -47.3% ROI
  • 11-13 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -12% ROI
  • 13-11 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 3.27% ROI

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville has averaged 9.0 assists per game (198 assists/22 games) this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 13.5

Louisville has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.6 (198 assists/ 357 TOs) this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Louisville has averaged 7.8 turnovers per game (172 turnovers/22 games) in the second half this season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 5.6

Louisville has averaged 16.2 turnovers per game (357 turnovers/22 games) this season — highest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 12.2

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville has averaged 5.0 steals per game (111 steals/22 games) this season — 2nd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Louisville has averaged 5.4 steals per game (118 steals/22 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Louisville has allowed 74.5 points per game (1,638 points/22 games) this season — 2nd highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 69.6

Louisville has allowed 35.7 points per game (785 points/22 games) in the first half this season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.0


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.