- The Phoenix Mercury went 9-31 last year and missed the postseason.
- Phoenix has a win total of 18.5 entering the 2024 WNBA season.
The Phoenix Mercury missed the playoffs for the first time since 2012 during a 9-31 campaign last year.
According to the online sportsbook, the Mercury are expected to bounce back and return to the postseason.
But there might be value in betting on the downside case for Phoenix this summer.
Mercury Futures Odds
Win total: 18.5
To make playoffs: -275
To miss playoffs: +225
Championship odds: +3500
The last time the Mercury won single-digit games in 2012 (7-27) to miss the playoffs, they bounced back to make the conference finals and finish 19-15.
That’s the plan for Phoenix this year, particularly after the team traded for Kahleah Copper, who won the 2021 WNBA Finals MVP when the Chicago Sky bested the Mercury for the title.
Copper averaged 18.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game last season.
Mercury 2024 Betting Prediction
Prediction: To Miss Playoffs (+310)
Note: This line has moved since the pick was made in early May.
With Copper in the fold, the Mercury certainly have more upside than last year. Their future outlook looks much more promising.
But there is a downside case that isn’t being talked about enough.
Brittney Griner returned to action last season, earning an All-Star bid by averaging 17.5 points and 6.3 rebounds. However, it still represents a bit of a drop-off after Griner averaged 20.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per contest in 2021.
Griner might not be the same player at 33 years old. Diana Taurasi, 41, has to pick her spots throughout the regular season.
The Mercury could miss the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since 2006. This scenario is certainly more plausible than these odds indicate.
2023 WNBA Standings
| Team | W | L | W/L% | GB |
| New York Liberty* | 32 | 8 | 0.8 | — |
| Minnesota Lynx* | 30 | 10 | 0.75 | 2 |
| Connecticut Sun* | 28 | 12 | 0.7 | 4 |
| Las Vegas Aces* | 27 | 13 | 0.675 | 5 |
| Seattle Storm* | 25 | 15 | 0.625 | 7 |
| Indiana Fever* | 20 | 20 | 0.5 | 12 |
| Phoenix Mercury* | 19 | 21 | 0.475 | 13 |
| Atlanta Dream* | 15 | 25 | 0.375 | 17 |
| Washington Mystics | 14 | 26 | 0.35 | 18 |
| Chicago Sky | 13 | 27 | 0.325 | 19 |
| Dallas Wings | 9 | 31 | 0.225 | 23 |
| Los Angeles Sparks | 8 | 32 | 0.2 | 24 |
Mercury Season-by-Season Records
| Year | Record | Playoffs Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9-31 | Missed Playoffs |
| 2022 | 15-21 | Lost First Round |
| 2021 | 19-13 | Lost Finals |
| 2020 | 13-9 | Lost Second Round |
| 2019 | 15-19 | Lost First Round |
| 2018 | 20-14 | Lost Semis |
| 2017 | 18-16 | Lost Semis |
| 2016 | 16-18 | Lost Semis |
| 2015 | 20-14 | Lost Western Conference Finals |
| 2014 | 29-5 | Won Finals |
Visit the online sportsbook for updated WNBA odds throughout the year. From futures like championship odds, MVP odds, or Rookie of the Year odds, to in-season betting with spreads, parlays, and prop bets, there’s something for everyone.
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