- Arsenal is a -0.5-goal favorite against Liverpool.
- Hosts Arsenal earned a point in a recent meeting at Anfield.
- Liverpool lead the Premier League but are missing key players for Sunday's contest.
Before Sunday’s FA Cup third round match, I’m set to provide an Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction.
This match pits two of English soccer’s top teams. Currently, Liverpool leads the English Premier League, while Arsenal sits in fourth place.
They also met recently on December 23, with Arsenal earning a crucial road point at Anfield.
Here’s how the soccer betting odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at the Emirates Stadium and my best bet for the match.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Betting Odds
- Arsenal to Win: +100
- Liverpool to Win: +240
- Arsenal vs. Liverpool Draw: +290
- The Arsenal vs. Liverpool Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Arsenal vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Arsenal vs. Liverpool is a Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (+100).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
I backed this exact same parlay a few weeks ago at Anfield and am slightly surprised the market hasn’t caught up yet.
If there’s one thing we know about Arsenal, it’s that they possess an outstanding defense.
In the Premier League this season, they lead the league in non-penalty expected goals against, per fbref.com.
Just at home, they’ve only surrendered 7.7 expected goals against, the second-best mark in the English top flight.
Plus, in their trip to Anfield on December 23, manager Mikel Arteta’s side held the Reds to one expected goal and only three shots on target.
Now Arsenal gets to face a Liverpool side missing key attacker Mohamed Salah. This season, Salah leads Liverpool with 14.3 expected goals and 9.4 non-penalty expected goals.
Without Salah, I question how Liverpool manages more than one tally against Arsenal.
At the same time, Arsenal has largely relied on penalty kicks to generate most of their chances this season.
To date, the Gooners rank fifth in expected goals compared to eighth in non-penalty expected goals.
On Sunday, they battle a Liverpool defense that has made massive strides since last season.
In the 2022-23 campaign, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side ranked ninth in non-penalty expected goals against.
At the halfway point of this Premier League season, they’re third in that category.
Accordingly, I’ll be surprised if hosts Arsenal bag three or more goals in this match that would cause it to go over 3.5 goals.
But, given Arsenal have earned points in all but one home match this season, they should do no worse than a draw.
Back this same game parlay so long as it remains available at -110 or better.
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