- Astros / Phillies TV Channel: NSP+ | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+220) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-275) on Friday, March 8, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Clearwater, FL.
This season, the Astros are 7-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 6-4 ATS.
Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Astros | +220 |
| Phillies | -275 |
Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 away games (+3.40 Units / 170% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Johan Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 84 away games (+23.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 84 away games (+16.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 6-4 against the Run Line (+1.77 Units / 13.63% ROI).
- 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 17.76% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -35.94% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.54 Units / 23.63% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 6-4 against the Run Line (+1.09 Units / 7.79% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.97 Units / -15.9% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.4 Units / -40.82% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.78 Units / 33.48% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti is making his MLB debut today.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (162/281) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (55/78) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez induced opposing hitters to ground into 13 double plays in 63 opportunities (21%) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez threw fastballs down 49% of the time (330/675) in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 15-11 (.577) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 79-47 (.627) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 163-11 (.937) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 69-7 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Astros are 21-5 (.808) against the run line (28.4% ROI) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Astros hitters slugged .460 on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .166 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .790 (3,042 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Phillies hitters slugged .454 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (4,019 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers won 40% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 95 double plays in 1,088 opportunities (9%) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
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