The Atlanta Braves (+125) visit Ed Smith Stadium to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-150) on Wednesday, March 13, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Sarasota, FL.
This season, the Braves are 6-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 9-3 ATS.
Braves vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Braves | +125 |
| Orioles | -150 |
Braves vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+4.70 Units / 100% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.75 Units / 79% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 away games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 152 games (+23.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.72 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+5.39 Units / 6% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Braves are 7-5 against the Run Line (+0.78 Units / 4.94% ROI).
- 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 7.96% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.77 Units / -21.03% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.33 Units / 9.96% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Orioles are 9-3 against the Run Line (+6.79 Units / 48.26% ROI).
- 12-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 78.13% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.59 Units / -11.98% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.53 Units / 4.02% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 51% (270/532) against Bryce Elder in the 2023 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Bryce Elder had an average fastball velocity of just 89.8 MPH in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.0 — second Percentile.
Bryce Elder had a strikeout rate of just 17% (128/732) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Bryce Elder had a strikeout rate of just 15% (28/184) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cole Irvin has an average spin rate of 2112.4 RPM on curveballs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2529.5 — fifth Percentile.
Cole Irvin has an average spin rate of 1965.8 RPM on fastballs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2234.5 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 35% (66/189) against Cole Irvin in the 2023 season — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 19% (6/31) against Cole Irvin in late innings in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Braves are 164-34 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Braves are 46-41 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves were 28-46 (.378) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Orioles were 33-19 (.635) after a road win in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Orioles were 60-38 (.612) after a win in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Orioles were 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles won 62% of games in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 56% on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers won 49% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .198 against Orioles pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles pitchers won 41% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Orioles have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Orioles vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
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