Bundesliga Prediction: How to Bet RB Leipzig-Bayern Munich

This weekend’s German soccer slate features a prime matchup between RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich, for which I’m set to offer a Bundesliga prediction. 

Bayern Munich sit atop the domestic table, but only on goal differential. In their last match, they thrashed Bochum 7-0 at home. 

RB Leipzig enter this match fourth in the league. After an opening day defeat at Leverkusen, they’ve pulled off four straight wins. 

On Saturday, Bayern Munich is a -105 road favorite while Leipzig is +230 on the three-way moneyline. The draw is +300 with the total set at 3.5 goals, juiced -130 to the under. 

Bundesliga odds are reflective at time of writing. 

RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich Betting Prediction

RB Leipzig Goal-Line (+0.5, -125)

Leipzig’s drastic overperformance is slightly worrisome, as they enter this match with a +10 goal differential vs. a +1 expected goal differential. 

But, they’ve simultaneously played very well against Bayern Munich in recent memory. 

Last season, Leipzig earned a point in both head-to-head meetings. Then, in a German Super Cup meeting at Bayern, they thrashed the hosts 3-0. 

Although the German giants operated without Harry Kane in the most recent meeting, Leipzig’s defense should keep them in this match. Through five contests, they’ve surrendered the fifth-fewest non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Bayern Munich has racked up expected goals in a hurry early this season, leading the league by 2.4 expected goals. 

However, the competition leaves a lot to be desired. Thus far, the title holders have faced only one top-six side from last season. 

Although they created 2.1 expected goals against Leverkusen, that match came at home. Last season, Bayern created 0.84 expected goals per 90 fewer away from home. 

Included in that sample is only 0.7 expected goals at Leipzig, who matched the Bayern total in that match. They went on to generate 1.5 non-penalty expected goals at the Allianz Arena. 

If this game proves a lower-scoring affair, that undoubtedly benefits underdogs Leipzig. 

The hosts do have some injury concerns on their hands – both Dani Olmo and Timo Werner could miss out – but the same can be said for Bayern. 

Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and center-halves Matthijs de Ligt and Kim Min-Jae all could be absent, giving opportunities to the Leipzig attack. 

Based on those factors, take the goal with Sunday’s hosts at -130 or better.