- Arsenal is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against PSG.
- In the 2016 Champions League, Arsenal and PSG drew both matches.
- My Arsenal vs. PSG prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
The marquee match of Tuesday’s Champions League slate sees Arsenal host PSG at the Emirates.
Arsenal suffered a 0-0 draw in their opening UCL match at Atalanta, while PSG received a late gift from Girona to eke out a 1-0 home win.
Last season, Arsenal finished 3-0 SU at home in the Champions League group stage. PSG, meanwhile, finished 0-2-1 (W-L-D) in road group matches last season.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my Arsenal vs. PSG prediction.
Champions League Odds: Arsenal vs. PSG
- Arsenal Moneyline: -135
- PSG Moneyline: +333
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-145), No (+100)
Champions League Betting: Arsenal vs. PSG Prediction
My prediction for Arsenal vs. PSG is a Same Game Parlay: the Game Total Under 3.5 and PSG Under 0.5 first-half goals (+100).
The crux of this play is the latter leg.
In their first match of this Champions League phase, PSG played a Girona side that ranked 61st of 96 last season in expected goals allowed across Europe’s Big 5 leagues.
How did they perform in the first half? They generated only 0.26 xG off six shots.
That’s indicative of a troubling trend under Enrique. In their last seven Champions League group matches, PSG have scored a first-half goal only twice.
Both successes came against a Milan team that ranked 33rd in xGA across the Big 5 last season.
On Tuesday, they face an Arsenal side that ranked first in expected goals against in Europe’s Big 5 last season.
At the same time, this Arsenal attack leaves much to be desired.
A 4.4 xG performance against Leicester over the weekend marked only the second time this season they’ve cleared 1.3 xG.
At Atalanta on Matchday 1, Arsenal created a mere 0.8 xG against one of Italy’s worst defenses.
Playing at home should undoubtedly help boost those metrics. However, I question how this game gets to four or more goals.
As a result, pair a slow PSG start with the match finishing under 3.5 goals.
Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 28 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W
- Sept. 25 vs. Bolton: 5-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 22 at Manchester City: 2-2, D
- Sept. 19 at Atalanta: 0-0, D (Champions League)
- Sept. 15 at Tottenham: 1-0, W
PSG Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 27 vs. Rennes: 3-1, W
- Sept. 21 at Reims: 1-1, D
- Sept. 18 vs. Girona: 1-0, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 14 vs. Brest: 3-1, W
- Sept. 1 at Lille: 3-1, W
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