- Atletico Madrid is a -0.5 goal favorite against Celtic.
- Atletico Madrid is unbeaten in the Champions League this season.
- Celtic enter Matchday 3 off a heartbreaking home defeat to Lazio.
Before Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Celtic vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.
Hosts Celtic have experienced a rough start in the season’s Champions League, losing both of their first two matches.
On Matchday 2 against Lazio, Celtic claimed a 1-0 lead before conceding two unanswered goals to drop all three points.
Atletico, meanwhile, won 3-2 against Feyenoord on Matchday 2 in Madrid after a 1-1 draw with Lazio on Matchday 1.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Tuesday’s match:
Celtic vs. Atletico Madrid Odds
- Celtic to Win: +275
- Atletico Madrid to Win: -105
- Celtic vs. Atletico Madrid Draw: +260
- The Celtic vs. Atletico Madrid Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Celtic vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction
Based on recent trends, the spread prediction for Celtic vs. Atletico Madrid is Celtic Goal Line (+0.5, -120).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
This is the “hold your nose, say a prayer and have some courage” bet of the Champions League week.
Bettors have zero faith in this Celtic team. As of Tuesday morning, Atletico Madrid have received 71% of all bets and 85% of the money.
But the previous Champions League finalists are massively overvalued away from home.
Despite claiming a 3-2 win against Feyenoord on Matchday 2, manager Diego Simeone’s side lost the expected goals battle 2.4-0.8, per fbref.com.
They also proved inferior against Lazio, losing the expected goals battle 1.2-0.9.
Given those metrics, there’s absolutely no reason they should be a half-goal favorite away from home.
Across their last seven UEFA Champions League group stage road matches, Atletico has claimed all three points only twice.
Regarding Celtic, they finished the better side against Lazio.
Despite losing 2-1, manager Brendan Rodgers’ side won the expected goals battle 1.13-0.77 and finished level on big scoring chances.
Celtic also underperformed their post-shot expected goal tally (1.8) while finishing within 0.16 post-shot expected goals of Lazio.
This bet will somehow find a way to lose in dramatic fashion, but it’s Celtic or nothing for me. Bet the hosts +0.5 at -130 or better.
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