- Real Madrid is a -0.5-goal favorite against Borussia Dortmund.
- Dortmund has run incredibly well defensively in the Champions League.
- Why bettors should expect a dominant performance from the Spanish side.
The 2024 Champions League Final is set: Real Madrid will play Borussia Dortmund with the former seeking their second crown in three years.
A win for Madrid, who snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against Bayern Munich in the semifinal, would hand them their 15th continental trophy.
As for Dortmund, their last final came exactly a decade ago when they fell at Wembley Stadium to archrivals Bayern Munich. Not since 1997 have they won the Champions League.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my prediction for the final.
Champions League Final Prediction – Real Madrid vs. Dortmund
Real Madrid Win to Nil (+180) | Real Madrid Spread (-1.5, +145)
It’s my expectation that the German outfit get throttled in the final.
Dortmund has received quite a bit of fortune in this Champions League. They’ve conceded nine goals off 22.4 expected and have a +8 goal differential against a -7.3 xGDiff.
However, Dortmund is running into a Madrid team that has excelled this season against teams that allow loads of shots.
Against sides 48th or worse domestically in a Big 5 European league in shots allowed per 90, Madrid is 12-0 SU.
In those 12 matches, Madrid has scored three or more goals eight times, covered the aforementioned spread seven times, and won to nil eight times.
Examine the underlying metrics and bettors will find Madrid has created 2.09 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and have posted a +1.2 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Conversely, Dortmund has played 15 matches against sides 19th or better domestically in shots per 90 in a Big 5 European League.
In those 15 matches, they conceded 2.09 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes and 12.4 non-penalty goals under expected.
If you expect them to lose — they’ve lost seven of those matches – they’ve lost by multiple goals in four of seven and have failed to score in four of seven losses.
Plus, there’s a natural comparison in Spain to this Dortmund side: Girona.
Here’s how those two teams stack up against one another in terms of their domestic output:
- Expected Goal Differential per 90: Girona 20th, Dortmund 21st
- Expected Goals: Girona 16th, Dortmund 15th
- Expected Goals Against: Girona 51st, Dortmund 58th
Madrid has played two matches against Girona this season and dominated them. They won 4-0 at home and 3-0 on the road.
Madrid combined to win the post-shot expected goals battle 4.8 to 0.7 in those two matches.
Finally, Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti is also 4-1 SU in Champions League finals, so I’ll back Madrid to earn their 15th crown in dominant fashion.
Real Madrid Form
May 25 vs. Real Betis: 0-0, D
May 19 at Villarreal: 4-4, D
May 14 vs. Alaves: 5-0, W
May 11 at Granada: 4-0, W
May 8 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-1, W (Champions League)
Borussia Dortmund Form
May 18 vs. Darmstadt: 4-0, W
May 11 at Mainz: 0-3, L
May 7 at PSG: 1-0, W (Champions League)
May 4 vs. Augsburg: 5-1, W
May 1 vs. PSG: 1-0, W (Champions League)
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