- Manchester United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Copenhagen.
- Manchester United earned all three points in the reverse fixture.
- Copenhagen has proved tough out at home in the Champions League.
Before Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Copenhagen vs. Manchester United prediction.
When these sides met on Matchday 3, Manchester United closed as a heavy favorite. However, they struggled to a 1-0 win thanks to a late penalty kick save.
That puts manager Erik ten Hag’s squad on three points through three matches. Copenhagen, meanwhile, sits on one point.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Wednesday’s match.
Copenhagen vs. Manchester United Odds
- Copenhagen to Win: +320
- Manchester United to Win: -130
- Copenhagen vs. Manchester United Draw: +290
- The Copenhagen vs. Manchester United Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Copenhagen vs. Manchester United Prediction
Based on recent trends, the spread prediction for Copenhagen vs. Manchester United is Copenhagen Goal Line (+0.5, +100).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
The scoreline favored United in the first match, but the game finished relatively even based on underlying metrics.
Even if you discard Copenhagen’s last-gasp penalty kick, they still created 1.43 non-penalty expected goals while limiting United to 1.7, per fotmob.com.
Now they’ll switch venues and play in Copenhagen, where Wednesday’s hosts have played far superior soccer.
In their lone home Champions League fixture against Bayern Munich – a side I power rate ahead of United – Copenhagen finished the match level on expected goals.
Generally, the Danish champions have run very cold in the tournament thus far. Through three matches, they own a -2 non-penalty expected goal differential compared to a -0.8 npxGDiff.
Travel back to last season’s Champions League, and bettors will find Copenhagen earned results in all three home matches.
Manchester United is also missing loads of key pieces that could see them bag a win.
Central defender Lisandro Martinez is out along with central midfielder Casemiro. Attacker Marcus Rashford could also miss out, but I’ll be surprised if he fails to feature.
For those reasons, back the home underdogs to earn a point so long as they’re priced at -110 or better.
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