- Liverpool is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Bologna.
- Liverpool has won six of their last nine fixtures against Italian opposition.
- My Liverpool vs. Bologna prediction centers around the Bologna team total.
Seeking two wins from two to begin the Champions League campaign, Liverpool welcome Bologna to Anfield.
The Reds briefly fell behind 1-0 to Milan on Matchday 1. However, three unanswered goals gave the visitors a convincing road win.
Bologna struggled in their first Champions League match. They drew 0-0 as home favorites against Shakhtar Donetsk. That marks four draws in Bologna’s last five in all competitions.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my Liverpool vs. Bologna prediction.
Champions League Odds: Liverpool vs. Bologna
- Liverpool Moneyline: -500
- Bologna Moneyline: +1150
- Draw Moneyline: +625
- Over/Under: x.5 Goals (Over Price/Under Price)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (+105), No (-145)
Champions League Betting: Liverpool vs. Bologna Prediction
My Liverpool vs. Bologna prediction for Wednesday’s fixture is the Bologna Team Total Under 0.5 (-130).
I question how Bologna creates meaningful chances against an outstanding Liverpool defense.
Yes, the Reds conceded in Milan, but Milan is a far superior attack to Bologna. To date, Milan is 21st in expected goals across Europe’s Big 5 leagues, while Bologna is 62nd.
Bologna’s closest approximation to Liverpool this season is Napoli. Bologna traveled to Naples on Matchday 2 of Serie A and managed zero goals off 0.6 xG and 0.4 post-shot xG.
Let’s also take a minute to admire Liverpool’s defensive performance against Milan.
After surrendering a goal in the third minute – the shot was worth only 0.03 xG and 0.4 psxG – Liverpool didn’t surrender another chance worth more than 0.1 xG until the 94th minute.
Additionally, Liverpool didn’t surrender another shot on target until the 97th minute.
Even more concerning for Bologna is their offensive record vs. Shakhtar.
At home on the heels of a 60-year hiatus from European competitions, Bologna staggered out to 1.17 xG on 17 shots, a xG per shot output of 0.07.
Only three of those 17 shots produced an xG output higher than 0.1.
Against a Liverpool defense that leads the Premier League in expected goals against, take the under on Bologna’s team total.
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 28 at Wolves: 2-1, W
- Sept. 25 vs. West Ham: 5-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 21 vs. Bournemouth: 3-0, W
- Sept. 17 at AC Milan: 3-1, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 14 vs. Nottingham Forest: 0-1, L
Bologna Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 28 vs. Atalanta: 1-1, D
- Sept. 22 at Monza: 2-1, W
- Sept. 18 vs. Shakhtar Donetsk: 0-0, D (Champions League)
- Sept. 14 at Como: 2-2, D
- Aug. 31 vs. Empoli: 1-1, D
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