- Man City is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Inter.
- City earned a 1-0 win against Inter in the 2023 Champions League Final.
- I predict this match will stay under the pregame total.
In a rematch of the 2023 Champions League Final, Manchester City welcomes Inter Milan to the Etihad.
The Cityzens earned their first continental title under Pep Guardiola in 2023. They eclipsed Inter 1-0 in the final, but they lost the expected goals battle.
Now they’ll meet again a season after each team won their domestic title and reached last year’s knockout rounds.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my Man City vs. Inter prediction.
Man City vs. Inter Betting Odds
- Man City Moneyline: -190
- Inter Moneyline: +475
- Draw Moneyline: +333
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+120)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-145), No (+100)
Man City vs. Inter Prediction: Total Goals
My Manchester City vs. Inter prediction is the match total Under 2.5 Goals (+120).
Virtually nothing has changed about these teams since they last met.
If anything, Inter has a superior defense. In 2022 — the year they reached the final — they allowed 0.9 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes in Serie A.
Last season, Inter surrendered a mere 0.75 npxG per 90 in the Italian domestic league, per fbref.com.
Across the Big 5 European Leagues, only Arsenal, Leverkusen and Juventus surrendered fewer expected goals last season.
That makes this a great sell-high spot on City, which has generated at least two expected goals in three straight games.
But their offense struggled in the 2023 final against Inter. Guardiola’s side created only one expected goal and 1.1 psxG.
At the same time, don’t expect many chances from this Inter side.
There is a slight worry City have conceded a goal inside 15 minutes in three straight games.
But in five games last season against teams 20th or better domestically in xGA per 90, Inter created 1.56 non-penalty psxG away from home.
At Juventus — third overall in those ratings — the output fell to one non-penalty psxG.
City finished ninth in expected goals allowed across the Big 5 Leagues last season, so I’m confident they can limit Inter’s chances at home.
As a result, take the under on Wednesday in Manchester.
Man City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 14 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
- Aug. 31 at West Ham: 3-1, W
- Aug. 24 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W
- Aug. 18 at Chelsea: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D (City win on PK’s)
Inter Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 15 at Monza: 1-1, D
- Aug. 30 vs. Atalanta: 4-0, W
- Aug. 24 vs. Lecce: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 vs. Genoa: 2-2, D
- Aug. 11 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D (Friendly)
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