Barcelona vs. Napoli Prediction, Odds, Pick | Champions League Match Preview

Before Tuesday’s second Champions League leg, I’m here to offer a Barcelona vs. Napoli prediction. 

The defending Spanish champions are a sizable favorite to reach the quarterfinals (-225 to be exact) after earning a draw in Italy. 

However, as a function of some injury concerns, Barcelona is a short favorite to win Tuesday’s second leg against Napoli, who reached the quarterfinals in this competition last season. 

Here’s a look at the Champions League odds for Tuesday’s second leg along with my best bet. 

Champions League Betting Odds – Barcelona vs. Napoli

• Barcelona Moneyline: -115
• Napoli Moneyline: +290
• Draw Moneyline: +270
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)

Champions League Prediction – Barcelona vs. Napoli

Same Game Parlay: Barcelona Double Chance & Total Under 3.5 Goals (-120)

Driving this same game parlay is my lack of belief in Napoli, who have struggled this season against fellow Champions League sides. 

In Serie A, Napoli is 0-2-3 (W-D-L) against Italian sides playing in this season’s Champions League. 

Expand the sample to include two group matches vs. Real Madrid and the first leg against Barcelona and bettors will find Napoli is 0-3-5 in such matches. 

It’s also not like they’ve run unlucky in those fixtures. Across all eight matches, Napoli owns a -0.36 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

Slightly worrisome is that they won outright against Juventus recently, but that match came at home. 

Given Barcelona won the post shot expected goals battle in Italy, I’ll be surprised if they lose outright at home even though they’re facing loads of injury concerns. 

At the same time, bettors should expect a low-scoring match in Barcelona. 

The first leg featured only 1.6 expected goals between these two teams, along with 1.55 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

Plus, Barcelona is missing a lot of creativity for this match. 

Ferran Torres, Gavi, Pedri and Frankie De Jong all won’t feature on Tuesday while winger Raphinha is unlikely to go all 90 minutes. 

That should see them struggle against a Napoli side, allowing under one non-penalty expected goal per 90 minutes in Italy this season. 

At the same time, Barcelona is surrendering only 1.04 non-penalty xG per 90 in La Liga this season and has allowed only 2.7 expected goals in their three hardest UCL fixtures. 

For those reasons, back the match to finish under 3.5 goals for the second straight leg. Bet this same game parlay at -130 or better. 

Barcelona Form 

March 8 vs. Mallorca: 1-0, W

March 3 at Athletic Club: 0-0, D

Feb. 24 vs. Getafe: 4-0, W

Feb. 21 at Napoli: 1-1, D (Champions League)

Feb. 17 at Celta Vigo: 2-1, W

Napoli Form

March 8 vs. Torino: 1-1, D

March 3 vs. Juventus: 2-1, W

Feb. 28 at Sassuolo: 6-1, W

Feb. 25 at Cagliari: 1-1, D

Feb. 21 vs. Barcelona: 1-1, D (Champions League)