- Newcastle United is a -0.5 goal favorite vs. AC Milan.
- Hosts Newcastle have dropped two straight matches entering Wednesday.
- Sides drew 0-0 in their first head-to-head meeting on Matchday 1.
Before Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Newcastle United vs. AC Milan prediction.
Both sides find themselves behind the eight ball entering the final round of group play.
Newcastle holds the advantage over Milan but needs a win and a PSG non-win to reach the knockout rounds.
Meanwhile, visitors Milan need all three points and a PSG loss to reach the knockouts.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Wednesday’s match.
Newcastle United vs. AC Milan Odds
- Newcastle United to Win: -105
- AC Milan to Win: +260
- Newcastle United vs. AC Milan Draw: +280
- Newcastle United vs. AC Milan Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Newcastle United vs. AC Milan Prediction
Based on recent trends, the spread prediction for Newcastle United vs. AC Milan is Newcastle United 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (-130).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Lost in Newcastle’s poor run of form is that their offense has flowed quite nicely.
In their last five matches in all competitions, the Magpies have generated 1.86 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Just in two home matches against Chelsea and Manchester United, they’ve created 2.4 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Although they’ve registered a first-half tally in only one of those two games, manager Eddie Howe’s side has created 2.37 expected goals in the two first halves.
Of slight concern is the fact Newcastle created only 0.3 expected goals against Milan in their first meeting.
However, this Milan defense leaves a lot to be desired.
They’ve conceded at least one expected goal in four straight Champions League games and a first-half tally in three straight.
Given Newcastle has to go for it in this game, expect them to start strong and bag an early goal. Bet this market at -135 or better.