- Newcastle United is a -0.5 goal favorite vs. Borussia Dortmund.
- The Magpies are unbeaten in the first two UEFA Champions League matches.
- Borussia Dortmund has only one point through two matches.
Before Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Newcastle United vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction.
Host Newcastle has enjoyed a strong start to its European campaign. After a point in Milan, the Magpies earned a 4-1 home win against Paris Saint-Germain.
The start for Dortmund hasn’t proved as fortuitous. After losing to PSG, the German side only managed a point at home against Milan.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Tuesday’s match:
Newcastle United vs. Borussia Dortmund Odds
- Newcastle United to Win: -155
- Borussia Dortmund to Win: +400
- Newcastle United vs. Borussia Dortmund Draw: +300
- The Newcastle United vs. Borussia Dortmund Over/Under is 2.5 Goals.
Newcastle United vs. Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Newcastle United vs. Borussia Dortmund is Newcastle United Moneyline (-155).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Market respect has flowed in on hosts Newcastle and it’s hard to disagree with that move.
Although the Magpies will undoubtedly close a public favorite, they’ve excelled at home.
Last season, manager Eddie Howe’s side posted a +1.46 home expected goal differential per 90 minutes in the Premier League.
They’ve done a good job replicating that record this season, posting a +1.47 home xGDiff per 90 minutes in their first five EPL fixtures, per fbref.com.
Although a 0.94-0.93 expected goal win against PSG looks bad, the post-shot expected goal battle comes in at 1.7 to 1.01, per fotmob.com.
That record should give them an edge against Dortmund. Despite a +0.42 road expected goal differential per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga, the club has yet to face a fellow European side.
In a trip to PSG – the closest comparison to Newcastle – Dortmund lost the expected goals battle 2.4-0.7.
Thus far, Dortmund’s defense has surrendered 2.1 expected goals per 90 minutes in the Champions.
Against a Newcastle defense that ranked second in expected goals against during last season’s EPL campaign, I question how Dortmund will keep up.
Take the hosts at -160 or better on the moneyline or lay a goal for a reduced price.
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