College Football Hot Seat: Buyouts, Replacements, & Rumors For 2024

It’s never been more apparent that college football is a huge business worth billions of dollars. 

In the sport’s history, it’s probably never been more important to have the right staff in place than right now. Athletic directors are not afraid to fire their way out of a bad season, even if the decision will cost tens of millions of dollars.

Welcome to the 2024 hot seat season, where a new crop of coaches will inevitably be paid handsomely to go far, far away from their current jobs. 

It’s a curious time for the coaching carousel, as nearly one-quarter of all FBS jobs have turned over in the last 12 months. Many new head coaches are still in their first or second year on the job – still, in other words, in that early buffer zone of safety.

Here are a few head coaches who may be on the hot seat. 

Sam Pittman – Arkansas

Since winning the 2021 Outback Bowl to cap the program’s first nine-win season since 2011, Arkansas has gone 11-14, including 4-12 in SEC games.

Pittman’s staff is still recruiting at a respectable level — top-30 classes from 2020-24, including four top-125 recruits in the 2024 class — but that’s irrelevant if you’re getting waxed at home by a bad Auburn team.

Sam Pittman Buyout: Pittman’s contract is complex with deferred guaranteed bonuses and a winning-percentage clause. Simply put, if Pittman is fired after the 2024 season, he’ll be due somewhere between $9-$12 million. 

Sam Pittman Replacement: UTSA head coach and former Arkansas assistant Jeff Traylor is the obvious candidate. His success in San Antonio suggests he wasn’t the problem during the dreadful Chad Morris era.

If Jamey Chadwell is available, he could be an option, as could Gus Malzahn and Jon Sumrall. 

Dave Aranda – Baylor

Since winning the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, 2022, to cap the first 12-win season in program history, Baylor has won nine total games, tied for the seventh-fewest among Power Five programs.

Once mentioned as a potential candidate for a premier job, Aranda might need another magical season to retain his job. The Bears have lost 13 of their last 16 games, aren’t recruiting well, and desperately need a greater NIL commitment.

Dave Aranda Buyout: Aranda’s private-school buyout is unknown. Reports from local media and college football insiders have estimated it was between $24-30 million if fired after last season. If accurate, that means his post-2024 buyout would be around $18-25 million.

Dave Aranda Replacement: Baylor didn’t promote then-associate head coach Joey McGuire when Matt Rhule left for the NFL. But McGuire did remain on Aranda’s staff for two seasons before taking the Texas Tech job. He’s the obvious aim-high candidate. If they can’t land McGuire, other candidates might include Sumrall, Billy Napier, Blake Anderson, and Barry Odom.

Billy Napier – Florida

With hiring culture-obsessed Napier, Florida committed to a long-term, methodical rebuild with significant roster turnover, inconsistent on-field performances, and a lot of growing pains.

All of that has happened, though it’s still hard to accept for a program interested in competing for national championships, not Gasparilla Bowl contention.

Entering his third year, Napier is facing loads of two-deep questions, recruiting issues, and one of the hardest schedules in college football history.

Billy Napier Buyout: Under contract through the 2028 season, Napier is due 85% of the remaining contract if fired without cause. If he’s fired at the end of the 2024 season, he’d be due approximately $26 million.

Billy Napier Replacement: If athletic director Scott Stricklin is allowed to make a third hire after missing on Dan Mullen and Napier, he’d presumably gauge the interest of big fish like Dan Lanning, Lane Kiffin, or Kalen DeBoer. Eli Drinkwitz could also be an option, as could Chadwell, and Willie Fritz.

Kalani Sitake – BYU

Sitake won 29 games from 2020-22, but the Cougars are now members of the Big 12, and the first adjustment to regular conference play in the Big 12 wasn’t kind to BYU. 

This season, BYU has major questions at quarterback, with USF transfer Gerry Bohanon fighting it out with former junior college QB Jake Retzlaff.

If BYU finishes as one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and has a badly mismanaged quarterback room, the trendlines could be enough for BYU to decide on a new direction for the program. Sitake has been in Provo for nine years and is well-liked, but the admin could feel a new era of BYU football calls for a fresh direction.

Kalani Sitake Buyout: Like Baylor, BYU is a private school, which means Sitake’s buyout status is not publicly known. His current contract runs through 2027 after a large 2021 extension.

Kalani Sitake Replacement: With BYU now in the Big 12, a replacement for Sitake might be someone who can hold ground in Utah while also reaching down into the traditional Big 12 footprint for recruits. GJ Kinne has the offensive chops to make BYU immediately interesting, and he knows his way around the Big 12 footprint from his time at Texas State and FCS Incarnate Word before that. 

Will Hall – Southern Miss

Once the model of acceptable consistency, Southern Miss can’t find the right formula in the transfer portal and NIL era.

Momentum from seven wins in 2022 was eradicated last year with the second nine-loss season in Hall’s three years. The former small-school coach is now 13-24 and might need a dramatic turnaround in 2024 to retain his job.

Will Hall Buyout: Hall’s buyout is 100% of his remaining contract, though his four-year deal expires on Dec. 31, 2024. If fired during or shortly after the 2024 season, the buyout would be low six figures or high five figures.

Will Hall Replacement: Current defensive coordinator Ron Roberts was rumored to be a candidate before Hall was hired and could be in the mix again. Blake Anderson could also make sense.

Mario Cristobal – Miami (FL)

Miami has high expectations this year with Washington State transfer Cam Ward playing quarterback and many other impact players entering via the portal. College football odds are bullish on Miami, including the College Football Playoff odds, which price the Canes at +200 to make the new 12-team CFP.

If Miami falls short of ACC contention, the impatient Hurricanes may start to wonder if Cristobal is the long-term answer at head coach. 

That may seem like a premature move, given that Cristobal was given a huge 10-year contract and is widely seen as a good coach with a strong track record. Yet Miami made a similar move away from Manny Diaz after three years. Diaz had a 21-15 record when he was canned; so far, Cristobal is 12-13. 

Cristobal might not be on an outright hot seat, but from Miami’s perspective, it might be warmer than the national public believes.

Mario Cristobal Buyout: Like Baylor, Miami is a private school, so we don’t know exactly what the terms of Cristobal’s contract state. What we do know is that Cristobal’s 2022 contract is reportedly a 10-year, $80 million deal, meaning his buyout is almost certainly an eight-digit number.

Mario Cristobal Replacement: Considering the swagger and culture that Miami often exudes, the Hurricanes might take a flier on Deion Sanders. After all, Shedeur and Travis Hunter will be off to the NFL in 2025, leaving Coach Prime free to consider more high-profile projects than his current gig at Colorado. 

If Miami is interested in someone who’s won a few more games than Sanders, it could stay in state with current USF head coach Alex Golesh or maybe even Napier. The latter could be happy to escape Gainesville in favor of a more forgiving ACC schedule. 

While we’re on the subject of escaping the brutality of the SEC – is there any chance Brent Venables would want to return to ACC country?