Boston College vs SMU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:26 PM

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SMU quarterback Preston Stone (2) during the first half of an NCAA college football game against SMU, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023, in Norman, Okla. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)

(AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)

SMU is a -18.5 point favorite vs. Boston College
Boston College vs. SMU Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Boston College Eagles (5-4) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs (8-1) on Nov. 16 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

SMU is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-110).

The Boston College vs. SMU Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Boston College vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Boston College	+18.5 -110	53.5 -105	+600
SMU	-18.5 -110	53.5 -115	-900

Boston College vs SMU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 88.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Boston College and SMU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Boston College vs SMU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 60.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Boston College Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Boston College has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 49% ROI)
Boston College has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 46% ROI)
Boston College have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Boston College has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Boston College has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)

SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 28% ROI)
SMU has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
SMU have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
SMU have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 17% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Boston College players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Boston College Player Prop Bets Today

Lewis Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Thomas Castellanos has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 72% ROI)
Jaedn Skeete has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Thomas Castellanos has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Thomas Castellanos has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best SMU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 71% ROI)
Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Romello Brinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Boston College Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boston College is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI).

Boston College is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 43.29% ROI
Boston College is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Boston College is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.41% ROI).

SMU is 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 4.92% ROI
SMU is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
SMU is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Boston College: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

Boston College is 6-8 (.429) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Boston College is 6-8 (.429) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

Boston College is 11-6 (.647) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .528

Boston College is 7-2 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 39th-best in FBS; Average: .674

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Boston College

SMU is 7-1 (.875) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .528

SMU is undefeated (19-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .784

SMU is 19-2 (.905) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .676

SMU is 7-1 (.875) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .505

Matchup Notes for Boston College vs. SMU

Kevin Jennings (SMU) has thrown for 993 yards on 88 pass attempts (11.3 YPA) on first down this season — 6th-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. Boston College’s defense has allowed 9.1 YPA on first down this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.9% of 202 attempts this season — 35th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.4% of attempts this season — best among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s QBs has thrown for 1,608 passing yards in 9 games (just 178.7 YPG) this season — 22nd-worst among FBS teams. SMU’s defense has allowed 249.8 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College Offensive Stats & Trends

Boston College RBs have averaged 10.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (269 yards / 27 touches) on 3rd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 1,608 passing yards in 9 games (just 178.7 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense has allowed 249.8 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU Skill Players have caught just 8 of 24 passes (33% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

SMU TEs have averaged 19.3 yards per reception (116 yards/6 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.1

SMU Skill Players have caught just 8 of 24 passes (33% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 61%

SMU Skill Players have just one touchdown on 35 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.1

SMU WRs have no touchdowns on 21 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.9

Boston College Eagles Defensive Stats & Trends

Boston College has no interceptions and 19 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.4

Boston College has no interceptions (38 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.1

Boston College has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (28/633) since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Boston College has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (28/633) since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Boston College has sacked opposing QBs just once on 65 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 20 rushing attempts (15% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

SMU has allowed 13 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

SMU has allowed 13 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-5th-most in FBS

SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (27 completions/63 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 60%

SMU has tackled opponents for a loss on 57 of 292 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) this season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.