- Super Bowl LVIII kicks off Sunday night, with the 49ers (-2) playing the Chiefs.
- The BetMGM online sportsbook has hundreds of markets available.
- The Chiefs have won early in games, and the 49ers have won late. Bet accordingly.
It’s officially Super Bowl week. Super Bowl LVIII is fast approaching, which means millions of bettors are studying trends and placing bets.
Fortunately, the BetMGM online sportsbook has hundreds of football odds markets available for the Big Game, including dozens of individual props for yardage, touchdowns, field goals, and more.
I’ve spent the better part of two weeks looking through all these markets to find the ones I like the most.
Best Super Bowl Prop Bets 2024
Here’s a comprehensive look at every bet I’ve made for Super Bowl LVIII … so far. Tail or fade at your discretion.
Mahomes Under 261.5 Passing Yards
I’m sure the over on Mahomes passing prop is going to be a mass public target, but there just isn’t a lot of evidence to suggest it’s a good bet right now.
Since Week 8, Mahomes has thrown for at least 262 passing yards in four of his 12 games. One of the four was the wild-card game against Miami on Jan. 13, when Mahomes got to exactly 262 yards against Miami’s depleted defense.
Much has been made of the Chiefs’ ineffective wide receiver corps this year, and this market is one place to attack that. The Chiefs have been jumping out to leads early and then holding on with their run game and defense. Because of that, I’m anticipating an unpopular under here.
Purdy Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ starts to their 2024 playoff games have not exactly been overwhelmingly positive. San Francisco has relied on a sequence of hot second halves to advance to Super Bowl LVIII. I’m expecting the pattern to continue on Sunday, which means game script should favor plenty of Purdy passes.
Schematically, I also expect Kyle Shanahan and Purdy to utilize quick passes as an extension of their run game so that they’re not constantly running straight at Kansas City’s impressive defensive front.
Purdy Over 3.5 Rush Attempts (+110)
One of the wrinkles that Shanahan has injected into the 49ers’ playoff offense is a bit more mobility from Purdy. He had six total carries in five games in December 2023; he had 11 total in two January playoff games.
Purdy can get to four carries all on his own quite easily, which is one reason I like this at a plus price. However, this prop becomes even stronger when you consider the possibility that Purdy could rack up kneel-downs at the end of the game if the 49ers win, and taking a knee technically counts as a rushing attempt.
CMC Under 4.5 Receptions (+105); CMC Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Christian McCaffrey is one of my favorite NFL players to watch. I was thrilled when he got traded from Carolina to San Francisco because it meant his talent could stop suffering in anonymity.
That said, the market overrates and overbets many of his props precisely because he’s so popular and fun to watch. For instance, McCaffrey’s Over 87.5 Rushing Yards prop is one of the five most popular props at BetMGM, as of Feb. 5.
Most bet (tickets) player props 49ers-Chiefs at #BetMGM
1. Brock Purdy over 12.5 rushing yards
2. Isiah Pacheco over 66.5 rushing yards
3. Travis Kelce over 70.5 receiving yards
4. Purdy over 0.5 interception
5. Christian McCaffrey over 87.5 rushing yards pic.twitter.com/Sjb2SwJRlG
— John Ewing (@johnewing) February 5, 2024
McCaffrey’s receiving props are priced low because they should be. He’s had four receptions or fewer in four of his last seven games; he’s had 30 receiving yards or fewer in six of his last nine.
The do-it-all nature of McCaffrey is what makes him so great to watch, but how often he actually does do it all is way overestimated.
Isiah Pacheco Records More Rushing Yards Than Christian McCaffrey (+150)
This number seems way off to me. For one thing, bettors can reasonably assume that Kansas City will rely on a smaller number of offensive playmakers – Travis Kelce, Pacheco, Rashee Rice – than San Francisco. The 49ers have a huge ensemble of talent all over the field and will spread the ball around. Kansas City just has fewer mouths to feed.
Kansas City also wants to stick to its ground game right now, especially after halftime. Pacheco has a whopping 63 carries since the start of the playoffs.
I’ve already pointed out that Kansas City has excelled at jumping on early leads, and Purdy has started slow. So if that’s the game script to expect, that traditionally codes as more carries for Pacheco and fewer carries for McCaffrey.
This number is only at +150 because McCaffrey is a much sexier name than Pacheco.
First Touchdown Scorer Jersey Number Over 19.5 (-130)
This is always a fascinating market and one of my Super Bowl favorites. What will the jersey number be for the player who scores the first touchdown? Will it be over 19.5 or under 19.5?
If you bet the under, you get a player pool that includes: Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes, Kadarius Toney.
If you bet the over, you get a player pool that includes: Noah Gray, Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Kyle Juszczyk, George Kittle.
The first group probably has more big names, but there’s a reason the second group is a -130 favorite.
There’s just more touchdown juice with the second group of names. The Chiefs and 49ers have scored a combined 14 touchdowns so far during these playoffs, and nine of them came from the latter list of names.
Noah Gray Anytime Touchdown +900
There is so much attention on Travis Kelce in this game, and much of it is deserved. Kelce played a mediocre regular season, but has torched opposing defenses during this playoff run.
I am beginning to wonder if Chiefs coach Andy Reid will try to use the extra attention on Kelce to Gray’s advantage. Gray has only scored two touchdowns this season, but he remains a semi-common target in the Chiefs’ passing game with at least three in five of their last six games.
At +900, this is a fun touchdown dart throw that is just fat enough on the return side for me to get involved.
Over 2.5 Field Goals (-210)
Here it is – the weird, random prop that I discover every year and become obsessed with. I am wildly confident that there will be over 2.5 field goals in this game.
Let’s break this down. First of all, Super Bowl decision-making tends to be a bit more classic and conservative because of the game stakes. While the NFL has made strides the last couple of years in embracing analytics and going for it on fourth down, or going for two in mathematically advantageous spots, coaches still like to take the points in the final game of the season.
How do I know this? Well, for one thing, there have been at least three field goals kicked in each of the last six Super Bowls. Yes, even that awful Rams-Patriots game that finished 13-3.
Bettors who are chasing return might be interested in betting Exactly 3 Field Goals Made, which BetMGM prices at +250. I will probably sprinkle a little extra on that prop in addition to this one.
But in a pure mathematical sense, the true value here is on the Over 2.5 field goals, which is priced at -210. Remember, this is all about the quant. A -210 price has an implied probability of 67.7%, which is right around a two-thirds chance. That’s a pretty light number for something that’s happened in six straight games.
Add in the game-specific context that this is an indoor game with at least one kicker (Kansas City’s Harrison Butker) who is very sure-footed from 50 yards, and this will be my biggest prop bet of Super Bowl LVIII.
Chiefs 1H +105; Chiefs ML +110
Now that I’ve talked you through some of my props, I’ll leave you with the sides I’m betting. I bet the Chiefs early at +100 (they’re now available at BetMGM at +110). I added on with some Chiefs 1H +105.
Grabbing a little early-market preflop Chiefs +100.
— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) January 29, 2024
Kansas City has attracted a lot of attention after winning back-to-back playoff games as a dog. A lot of bettors are reluctant to fade them again. Even more might just be new bettors who are attracted to the Kelswift Era of Chiefs football.
For me, this actually goes back a lot further. Four years ago, I had a hefty sum of money on the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. My theory on the game was that the Chiefs had the best quarterback, but the 49ers had the best team, and the latter would win out over 60 minutes.
In fact, the opposite ended up happening. The 49ers clearly had the better team and led for much of the game, but Mahomes was so great in the final minutes that the Chiefs won anyway.
The lesson I took away from that was not to never doubt Mahomes, but that there’d better be a really good quarterback on the other side if I wanted to bet against him. I was willing to do that in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago because of how highly I think of Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh, but I can’t quite get there with Purdy.
So I like the Chiefs as a bet, and I’m adding on some Chiefs 1H because it’s how they’ve won all year. Kansas City finds an early lead and somehow survives a scoreless second half. As unlikely and untenable as it feels, it’s a clear trend at this point. I might as well try to profit off it.
KC 1H/49ers ML +600
Consider this a fun little hedge against everything I just wrote about the Chiefs winning with superior quarterback play. At BetMGM, you can bet that the Chiefs will lead at halftime but that the 49ers will win the game for +600. The rich return is, of course, because these outcomes do not correlate.
Since the Chiefs have shown a tendency to play well early, and the 49ers have won a lot of second halves, I think there is a certain logic to playing this as a hedge for Chiefs backers.
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