- The Toledo is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Bowling Green
- The Bowling Green vs. Toledo Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Bowling Green Falcons (3-4) visit Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets (5-2) on Oct. 26 in Toledo, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Bowling Green vs. Toledo Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Bowling Green vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bowling Green | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +120 |
| Toledo | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -145 |
Bowling Green vs Toledo Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Bowling Green and Toledo, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Bowling Green vs Toledo Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 53.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Bowling Green Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Bowling Green have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bowling Green have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.95 Units / 18% ROI)
Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+3.65 Units / 3% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.05 Units / 2% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.10 Units / 16% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Toledo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Toledo Player Prop Best Bets Today
- no trends found
Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bowling Green is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI).
- Bowling Green is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -11.49% ROI
- Bowling Green is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Bowling Green is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI).
- Toledo is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 2.17% ROI
- Toledo is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
- Toledo is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Bowling Green is 3-7 (.300) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .505
Bowling Green is 3-7 (.300) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .476
Bowling Green is 8-2 (.800) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .628
Bowling Green is 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .659
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green
Toledo is 14-4 (.778) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .585
Toledo is 14-3 (.824) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .642
Toledo is 15-4 (.789) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .573
Toledo is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .622
Matchup Notes for Bowling Green vs. Toledo
Toledo’s RBs has averaged 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 6th-best among FBS RBs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed 9.3 RAC to RBs since the 2023 season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s RBs has gained 660 yards on 57 receptions (11.6 YPR) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed 9.3 Yards Per Reception to RBs since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s RBs have 36.1 receiving yards per game this season — 26th-best among FBS RBs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 161.7 receiving yards per game this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s TEs has 65 receptions in 7 games (9.3 per game) this season — best among FBS TEs. Toledo’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s TEs has 119 receptions in 20 games (6.0 per game) since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among FBS TEs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 17.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s TEs has 65 receptions in 7 games (9.3 per game) this season — best among FBS TEs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 2.4 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green TEs have averaged 9.3 receptions per game (65/7) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Bowling Green TEs have averaged 128.7 receiving yards per game (901/7) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 37.4
Bowling Green TEs have 14 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Bowling Green TEs have been targeted 11.7 times per game (82/7) this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
Bowling Green’s TEs has 65 receptions in 7 games (9.3 per game) this season — best among FBS TEs. Toledo’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo RBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo RBs have averaged just 3.5 Yards per Carry (630 yards/179 carries) this season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Toledo’s RBs has averaged 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 6th-best among FBS RBs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed 9.3 RAC to RBs since the 2023 season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo RBs have averaged just 3.7 Yards per Carry (190 yards/51 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– T-14th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
Bowling Green Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 258 carries (43 Carries Per TD) this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.2
Bowling Green has sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (52/520) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Bowling Green has allowed 90.9 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 168.9
Bowling Green has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (98 completions/181 attempts) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Bowling Green has allowed 116.6 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 168.0
Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo opponents has averaged 33.0 Passing Attempts per TD (661 Pass Attempts/20 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.2
Toledo has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 255 carries (42.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.2
Toledo opponents averaged 34.2 Passing Attempts per TD (411 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.8
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (28 completions/65 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (219 completions/411 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
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