College Football Bowl Game Odds Report: Line Movement for Final Games

As everyone knows, college football odds are refreshed by the online sportsbook at the beginning of each new week. 

What happens with those odds after opening is up to the market. It’s also critical for advantage bettors to watch.

That’s why I pay close attention to the point spreads of key college football games. I report the biggest moves here in order to help bettors make the most informed decisions ahead of kickoff.

College Football Bowl Game Odds Report

Line movement can be a critical factor to consider when evaluating bets. 

Market movements can reveal which side or total sharp bettors believe to be the right side; however, too much line movement can also open up valuable opportunities to bet against the line movement for value against the sportsbook’s opening line. 

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. UCF

Line Opened: UCF -6.5; Current Line: UCF -4.5
Total Opened: 67.5; Current Total: 61.5

Georgia Tech has been a live dog since Brent Key became head coach in the middle of the 2022 season, so I’m not surprised to see a little bit of action favoring the Yellow Jackets. I have a ticket here myself.

However, the real movement is in the total market, where the number has plummeted by six points. That makes this the biggest-moving total of all 2023 bowl games, at least to this point. 

Both Key and UCF head coach Gus Malzahn want to run the ball and control the game clock in a traditional sense, which might have something to do with loads of tickets betting an under that started in the high 60s. 

Gasparilla Bowl Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 22, 6:30 p.m. EST

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Georgia State vs. Utah State

Line Opened: Georgia State -3; Current Line: Utah State -3

It’s been a rough start to Bowl season for the Sun Belt, which is 1-2 in a record-setting bowl year for the conference after Old Dominion blew a 21-point fourth-quarter lead in Monday’s Famous Toastery Bowl.

The market thinks Georgia State may add to the losing, with Utah State flipping from a 3-point dog to a 3-point favorite. By the time this game kicks off on Saturday, the Panthers’ last football win will be more than two months old. 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 23, 3:30 p.m. EST

Military Bowl Presented by GoBowling.com: Virginia Tech vs. Tulane

Line Opened: Virginia Tech -5.5; Current Line: Virginia Tech -10.5

In some cases, line movement can be pretty easy to forecast during bowl season. In this case, former Tulane head coach Willie Fritz is headed to Houston, and Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt will not play in the bowl game.

Is that kind of chaos worth five points? And should anyone be trusting Virginia Tech to cover a double-digit spread as a favorite against a quality opponent? These are questions that late-to-the-party bettors now have the privilege of answering. 

Military Bowl Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2 p.m. EST

Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Missouri

Line Opened: Ohio State -6.5; Current Line: Missouri -2.5

Look, I think Missouri might just be a straight-up better team than Ohio State, but I’m higher than most on the Tigers. Let’s just say that up front.

But this line isn’t moving because a handful of us love this Missouri team. This kind of movement is generally tied to quarterback changes, and indeed, Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord announced he was putting his name into the transfer portal after the regular season ended.

McCord appears to be eyeing Nebraska as his next landing spot, while Ohio State will hand the reins of the offense to Devin Brown. 

Brown is probably seen as a big step down from McCord, which is driving this kind of dramatic line movement. But if you recall from the preseason, McCord and Brown had trouble separating from each other in pursuit of the starting position. 

I’m just not sure there’s nine points worth of distance from Ohio State’s QB1 to its QB2. That puts me in the awkward position of preferring Missouri on the field, but seeing obvious buyback value in Ohio State. 

Cotton Bowl Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 29, 8 p.m. EST

Barstool Sports Bowl: Toledo vs. Wyoming

Line Opened: Toledo -1.5; Current Line: Wyoming -3.5

Here’s another case of a missing quarterback. Rockets QB Dequan Finn is headed to Baylor via the NCAA Transfer Portal. That means Toledo won’t have the MAC Player of the Year for its bout with the Cowboys.

It may also be missing some motivation, as Toledo would have been the likely choice for a New Year Six game if it had beaten Miami (OH) in the MAC Championship Game. Instead, it’s playing that same day, but in a bowl game sponsored by Barstool.

Taken together, the market thinks those concerns are worth about five points. 

Barstool Sports Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m. EST