Georgia State vs Appalachian State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 9

Appalachian State running back Kanye Roberts (14) runs towards the corner of the endzone during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Jason Allen)
(AP Photo/Jason Allen)
  • The Appalachian State is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Georgia State
  • The Georgia State vs. Appalachian State Total (Over/Under): 62.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The Georgia State Panthers (2-4) visit Kidd Brewer Stadium to take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-4) on Oct. 26 in Boone, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT.

Appalachian State is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-115).

The Georgia State vs. Appalachian State Over/Under is 62.5 total points.

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Georgia State vs. Appalachian State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Georgia State+7.5 -10562.5 -105+240
Appalachian State -7.5 -11562.5 -115-300

Georgia State vs Appalachian State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Appalachian State will win this game with 71.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Georgia State and Appalachian State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Georgia State vs Appalachian State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Appalachian State will cover the spread with 74.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Georgia State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.95 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Georgia State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Appalachian State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Appalachian State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Appalachian State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Appalachian State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Georgia State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Georgia State Player Prop Bets Today

  • Dorian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Freddie Brock has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Ted Hurst has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia State is 1-5 against the spread this college football season (-4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI).

  • Georgia State is 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -38.33% ROI
  • Georgia State is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Georgia State is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

Appalachian State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Appalachian State is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.4 Units / -35.82% ROI).

  • Appalachian State is 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -69.39% ROI
  • Appalachian State is 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Appalachian State is 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI

Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. Appalachian State

Georgia State is 1-10 (.091) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .458

Georgia State is 5-8 (.385) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .540

Georgia State was winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .450

Georgia State is 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .541

Appalachian State: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State

Appalachian State is 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 38th-best in FBS; Average: .531

Appalachian State is 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .629

Appalachian State is 3-6 (.333) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .478

Appalachian State is 8-2 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .676

Matchup Notes for Georgia State vs. Appalachian State

Appalachian State’s WRs has 308 receptions in 20 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 20.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Appalachian State’s WRs has 308 receptions in 20 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Appalachian State’s offense has thrown for 5,589 passing yards in 20 games (279.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 258.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Georgia State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.3% of 240 attempts this season — T-31st-worst among FBS offenses. Appalachian State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts this season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State has averaged just 10.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS skill players. Appalachian State’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Georgia State’s WRs has averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. Appalachian State’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.3% of 240 attempts this season — T-31st-worst among FBS offenses. Appalachian State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts this season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State has averaged just 10.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS skill players. Appalachian State’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Georgia State RBs have picked up first downs on 7 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs have been targeted 5.7 times per game (34/6) in the 2nd half this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

Georgia State’s WRs has averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. Appalachian State’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Appalachian State Offensive Stats & Trends

Appalachian State’s WRs has 308 receptions in 20 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 20.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Appalachian State’s WRs has 308 receptions in 20 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Appalachian State’s offense has thrown for 5,589 passing yards in 20 games (279.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 258.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Appalachian State has 440 receptions in 20 games (22.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 29th-best among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 20.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Appalachian State’s WRs has gained 4,437 yards on 308 receptions (14.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia State’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia State Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 92% (23 completions/25 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 62%

Georgia State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 14 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 92% (23 completions/25 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (39 completions/58 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 79% (11 completions/14 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 53%

Appalachian State Mountaineers Defensive Stats & Trends

Appalachian State has allowed 6.5 touchdowns per interception (13 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

Appalachian State has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 21 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Appalachian State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 21 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Appalachian State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 26 of 222 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– T-16th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Appalachian State opponents has averaged just 11.3 Passing Attempts per TD (147 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 21.6


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About the Author

Shane Jackson

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Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.