Illinois vs Rutgers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:16 PM

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Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano watches from the sideline during the second half of a NCAA college football game against Ohio State, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023, in Piscataway, N.J. Ohio State won 35-16. (AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

(AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

Illinois is a -1 point favorite vs. Rutgers
Illinois vs. Rutgers Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: PEAC

The Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) visit SHI Stadium to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-4) on Nov. 23 in Piscataway, NJ. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Illinois is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Illinois vs. Rutgers Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Illinois vs. Rutgers Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Illinois	-1 -110	48.5 -115	-115
Rutgers	+1 -110	48.5 -105	-105

Illinois vs Rutgers Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Rutgers will win this game with 54.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Illinois and Rutgers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Illinois vs Rutgers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Rutgers will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.90 Units / 1% ROI)
Illinois have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.55 Units / 3% ROI)

Rutgers Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Rutgers has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Rutgers has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Rutgers has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Rutgers has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.55 Units / 7% ROI)
Rutgers has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.45 Units / 4% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Illinois Player Prop Bets Today

Tanner Arkin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Josh McCray has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Luke Altmyer has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaden Feagin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Rutgers players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rutgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dymere Miller has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kyle Monangai has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.75 Units / 25.11% ROI).

Illinois is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 5.47% ROI
Illinois is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Illinois is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI

Rutgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Rutgers is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Rutgers is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Rutgers is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Rutgers is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Rutgers

Illinois is 7-2 (.778) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .583

Illinois is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .650

Illinois is 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: .641

Illinois is 12-4 (.750) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .619

Rutgers: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

Rutgers is 3-8 (.273) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 27th-worst in FBS; Average: .445

Rutgers is 2-10 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .434

Rutgers is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .284

Rutgers is 11-2 (.846) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .752

Matchup Notes for Illinois vs. Rutgers

Rutgers’s WRs has gained 1,829 yards on 125 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 11.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Rutgers’s WRs has gained 1,829 yards on 125 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 12.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Rutgers’s WRs has gained 1,829 yards on 125 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 13.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s TEs has gained 157 yards on 19 receptions (just 8.3 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Rutgers’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s TEs has 19 receptions in 10 games (just 1.9 per game) this season — T-worst among Big Ten TEs. Rutgers’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game this season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s TEs has 19 receptions in 10 games (just 1.9 per game) this season — T-worst among Big Ten TEs. Rutgers’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Illinois Skill Players have just one touchdown on 45 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.0

Illinois WRs have 21 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among Big Ten Teams

Rutgers Offensive Stats & Trends

Rutgers Skill Players have averaged 18.2 yards per reception (584 yards/32 catches) with over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.7

Rutgers TEs have averaged just 7.2 yards per reception (325 yards/45 catches) since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.8

Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 44 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 13%.

Illinois has not allowed a pass completion for 20+ yards (41 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 9%

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 37 of 334 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– 11th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 37 of 334 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 44 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

Rutgers has sacked opposing QBs just once on 64 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.5

Rutgers allowed 16 first down receptions last week– most in the Big Ten

Rutgers has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 27 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Rutgers has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 27 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Rutgers did not record a sack (37 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2