Iowa vs Maryland Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:17 PM

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Maryland head coach Mike Locksley looks on during pre-game warm-ups before an NCAA college football game against Indiana, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in College Park, Md. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams)

(AP Photo/Terrance Williams)

Iowa is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Maryland
Iowa vs. Maryland Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: BTN

The Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) visit SECU Stadium to take on the Maryland Terrapins (4-6) on Nov. 23 in College Park, MD. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Iowa is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Iowa vs. Maryland Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Iowa vs. Maryland Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Iowa	-6.5 -110	45.5 -105	-250
Maryland	+6.5 -110	45.5 -115	+200

Iowa vs Maryland Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Iowa will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa and Maryland, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Iowa vs Maryland Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Maryland will cover the spread with 68.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Iowa Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Iowa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Iowa have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.05 Units / 48% ROI)
Iowa has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Iowa has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Iowa has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)

Maryland Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Maryland has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Maryland have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.10 Units / 16% ROI)
Maryland has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Maryland have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Maryland has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Iowa players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Iowa Player Prop Bets Today

Kaleb Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Reece Vander Zee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Cade McNamara has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Luke Lachey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaleb Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Maryland players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Maryland Player Prop Best Bets Today

Roman Hemby has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tai Felton has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Roman Hemby has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaden Prather has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Iowa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.65 Units / -5.88% ROI).

Iowa is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -5.74% ROI
Iowa is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.48% ROI
Iowa is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.65 Units / -42.47% ROI

Maryland Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Maryland is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.55 Units / -4.98% ROI).

Maryland is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -17.54% ROI
Maryland is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Maryland is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Iowa: Keys to the Game vs. Maryland

Iowa is winless (0-2) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471

Iowa is winless (0-5) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .299

Iowa is winless (0-5) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .284

Iowa is 15-2 (.882) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .662

Maryland: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa

Maryland is 5-2 (.714) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 25th-best in FBS; Average: .536

Maryland is 3-5 (.375) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527

Maryland is 2-6 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471

Maryland is 7-2 (.778) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Matchup Notes for Iowa vs. Maryland

Maryland’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.8% of 434 attempts this season — T-18th-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

Maryland has gained 3,067 yards on 282 receptions (just 10.9 YPR) this season — T-20th-worst among FBS skill players. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.

Maryland’s WRs has gained 2,201 yards on 187 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-19th-worst among FBS WRs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.

Iowa’s QBs has thrown for 1,388 passing yards in 10 games (just 138.8 YPG) this season — 8th-worst among FBS teams. Maryland’s defense has allowed 262.7 passing yards per game this season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Iowa’s offense has thrown for 1,388 passing yards in 10 games (just 138.8 YPG) this season — 8th-worst among FBS offenses. Maryland’s defense has allowed 262.7 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.

Iowa Offensive Stats & Trends

Iowa TEs have averaged 32.0 yards per reception (64 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.8

Iowa WRs have averaged just 5.5 receptions per game (132/24) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.9

Iowa WRs have averaged just 5.5 receptions per game (132/24) since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.2

Iowa WRs have averaged just 5.6 receptions per game (56/10) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.8

Iowa RBs have averaged 191.1 rushing yards per game (1,911/10) this season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 127.0

Maryland Offensive Stats & Trends

Maryland’s WRs has gained 2,201 yards on 187 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) this season — T-3rd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-best among P5 defenses.

Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Iowa has not recorded a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15.4

Iowa has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 304 carries (152 Carries Per TD) this season– best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Iowa has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 38 carries (19 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Iowa has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 38 carries (19 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 4.5

Iowa has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 304 carries (152 Carries Per TD) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.3

Maryland Terrapins Defensive Stats & Trends

Maryland has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (14/339) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Maryland has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 22 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Maryland has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 22 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%.

Maryland has allowed 13 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Maryland has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (10 completions/25 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 62%