Kansas vs BYU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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(AP Photo/Steve Conner)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 13, 2024, 4:47 PM

BYU is a -3 point favorite vs. Kansas
Kansas vs. BYU Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Kansas Jayhawks (3-6) visit LaVell Edwards Stadium to take on the BYU Cougars (9-0) on Nov. 16 in Provo, UT. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15pm EST.

BYU is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Kansas vs. BYU Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Kansas vs. BYU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kansas	+3 -110	56.5 -110	+125
BYU	-3 -110	56.5 -110	-150

Kansas vs BYU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts BYU will win this game with 59.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas and BYU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kansas vs BYU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts BYU will cover the spread with 53.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
Kansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.05 Units / 70% ROI)
Kansas has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Kansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Kansas have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)

BYU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

BYU has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 65% ROI)
BYU have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
BYU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 56% ROI)
BYU has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
BYU have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 38% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas Player Prop Bets Today

Luke Grimm has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 90% ROI)
Jalon Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Jalon Daniels has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Devin Neal has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Quentin Skinner has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for BYU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best BYU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Darius Lassiter has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
LJ Martin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hinckley Ropati has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Jake Retzlaff has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Jake Retzlaff has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)

Kansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.65 Units / -36.68% ROI).

Kansas is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -59.61% ROI
Kansas is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Kansas is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

BYU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

BYU is 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 47.52% ROI).

BYU is 8-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.5 Units / 88.97% ROI
BYU is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
BYU is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI

Kansas: Keys to the Game vs. BYU

Kansas is winless (0-2) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Kansas is 7-9 (.438) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Kansas is 10-3 (.769) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .596

Kansas is 7-9 (.438) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

BYU: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas

BYU is undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .499

BYU is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .675

BYU is undefeated (9-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .644

BYU is winless (0-4) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .353

Matchup Notes for Kansas vs. BYU

BYU has gained 2,140 yards on 155 receptions (13.8 YPR) this season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s TEs has 22 receptions in 9 games (just 2.4 per game) this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 2.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU’s WRs has gained 1,709 yards on 112 receptions (15.3 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 WRs. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas has gained 1,867 yards on 138 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — T-23rd-best among FBS skill players. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 1,413 yards on 95 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s TEs has 21 receptions in 9 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. BYU’s defense has allowed just 17.4 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas Skill Players averaged 24.6 yards per reception (295 yards/12 catches) last week– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.1

Kansas has gained 1,867 yards on 138 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — T-3rd-best among Big 12 skill players. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU Offensive Stats & Trends

BYU Skill Players have averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (518 yards/57 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

BYU has gained 2,140 yards on 155 receptions (13.8 YPR) this season — T-best among Big 12 skill players. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas Jayhawks Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Kansas’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 26% of PATs in the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Kansas’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 26% of PATs in the 2023 season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 9%

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in FBS; Average: 7%

Kansas allowed 9.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (36 yards / 4 touches) in the Red Zone last week– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

BYU Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

BYU sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/408) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

BYU has sacked opposing QBs just once on 73 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

BYU has not recorded a sack (34 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

BYU has not recorded a sack (34 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.9

BYU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 83 of 732 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

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