Kennesaw State vs UTEP Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:32 PM

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UTEP quarterback Cade McConnell (11) rolls out looking for an open receiver during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Liberty on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in El Paso, Texas. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)

(AP Photo/Andres Leighton)

UTEP is a -4 point favorite vs. Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State vs. UTEP Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The Kennesaw State Owls (1-7) visit Sun Bowl to take on the UTEP Miners (1-8) on Nov. 9 in El Paso, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

UTEP is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Kennesaw State vs. UTEP Over/Under is 42.5 total points.

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Kennesaw State vs. UTEP Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kennesaw State	+4 -110	42.5 -110	+145
UTEP	-4 -110	42.5 -110	-175

Kennesaw State vs UTEP Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UTEP will win this game with 61.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kennesaw State and UTEP, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kennesaw State vs UTEP Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UTEP will cover the spread with 55.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kennesaw State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kennesaw State has hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Kennesaw State have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 39% ROI)
Kennesaw State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 3 away games (+0.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Kennesaw State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.40 Units / 6% ROI)

UTEP Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UTEP has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+1.00 Units / 30% ROI)
UTEP has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
UTEP has hit the 1H Moneyline in 1 of their last 2 games at home (+0.65 Units / 32% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kennesaw State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kennesaw State Player Prop Bets Today

Qua Ashley has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Michael Benefield has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UTEP players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UTEP Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ezell Jolly has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Trey Goodman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Skyler Locklear has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kam Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Kennesaw State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kennesaw State is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

Kennesaw State is 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.78 Units / 106.81% ROI
Kennesaw State is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
Kennesaw State is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

UTEP Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTEP is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.55 Units / -36.04% ROI).

UTEP is 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -70% ROI
UTEP is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
UTEP is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

Kennesaw State: Keys to the Game vs. UTEP

Kennesaw State is winless (0-6) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: .537

Kennesaw State is winless (0-6) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Kennesaw State is winless (0-5) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .443

Kennesaw State is 1-7 (.125) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: .538

UTEP: Keys to the Game vs. Kennesaw State

UTEP is 1-15 (.062) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .378

UTEP is 2-13 (.133) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .416

UTEP is 1-15 (.062) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .385

UTEP is 3-15 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .484

Matchup Notes for Kennesaw State vs. UTEP

UTEP has 337 receptions in 21 games (just 16.0 per game) since the 2023 season — T-26th-worst among FBS skill players. Kennesaw State’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s TEs has 26 receptions in 20 games (just 1.3 per game) since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst among FBS TEs. Kennesaw State’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s WRs has 216 receptions in 21 games (just 10.3 per game) since the 2023 season — 32nd-worst among FBS WRs. Kennesaw State’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kennesaw State’s RBs has rushed for 810 yards on 196 carries (just 4.1 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst among FBS RBs. UTEP’s defense have allowed 4.9 YPC since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kennesaw State’s offense has thrown for 1,085 passing yards in 9 games (just 120.6 YPG) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. UTEP’s defense has allowed just 197.7 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS defenses.

Kennesaw State has 106 receptions in 9 games (just 11.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among FBS skill players. UTEP’s defense has allowed just 16.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Kennesaw State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kennesaw State WRs have just one touchdown on 61 receptions this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Kennesaw State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 32.7 receptions (98 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

Kennesaw State RBs have averaged 10.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (150 yards / 15 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.6

Kennesaw State WRs have no receptions on 3 targets in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 53%

Kennesaw State Skill Players have been targeted 34 times in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-fewest among FBS Teams

UTEP Offensive Stats & Trends

UTEP WRs have averaged a touchdown every 4.0 receptions (8 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

UTEP RBs have been targeted 10.0 times per game (90/9) this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Kennesaw State Owls Defensive Stats & Trends

Kennesaw State has allowed 5.7 touchdowns per interception (17 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Kennesaw State tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 7 rushing attempts (43% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Kennesaw State has allowed 7.0 touchdowns per interception (14 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7

Kennesaw State has intercepted 3 of 280 attempts (93.3 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 36.5

Kennesaw State tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 7 rushing attempts (43% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

UTEP Miners Defensive Stats & Trends

UTEP has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS

UTEP has allowed first downs on 56% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 29%

UTEP has allowed first downs on 47% of pass attempts in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 31%

UTEP has allowed first downs on 47% of pass attempts in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 30%

UTEP has allowed first downs on 56% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 30%