Kentucky vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:14 PM

min read

FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisian’s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)

(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

Texas is a -20.5 point favorite vs. Kentucky
Kentucky vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Kentucky Wildcats (4-6) visit Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (9-1) on Nov. 23 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-110).

The Kentucky vs. Texas Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

Bet now on Texas vs Kentucky & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Kentucky vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kentucky	+20.5 -110	47.5 -115	+900
Texas	-20.5 -110	47.5 -105	-1600

Kentucky vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 92.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kentucky and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kentucky vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Texas vs Kentucky and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 48% ROI)
Kentucky have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 1% ROI)
Texas have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kentucky Player Prop Bets Today

Brock Vandagriff has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Brock Vandagriff has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Quintrevion Wisner has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Jaydon Blue has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Isaiah Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Jaydon Blue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI).

Kentucky is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -8.47% ROI
Kentucky is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Kentucky is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Texas is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 0.49% ROI
Texas is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -13.64% ROI
Texas is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 5.45% ROI

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Kentucky is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .450

Kentucky is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .434

Kentucky is 3-10 (.231) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .488

Kentucky is 6-2 (.750) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

Texas is 14-1 (.933) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Texas is undefeated (13-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .598

Texas is 14-1 (.933) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .526

Texas is 14-2 (.875) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .536

Matchup Notes for Kentucky vs. Texas

Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.2% of 343 attempts this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — worst among P5 defenses.

Texas’s TEs has 48 receptions in 10 games (4.8 per game) this season — 4th-best among SEC TEs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 14.8 receptions per game this season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 1,834 passing yards in 10 games (just 183.4 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense has allowed just 136.5 passing yards per game this season — best among SEC defenses.

Kentucky’s WRs has gained 1,448 yards on 100 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.2 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky’s WRs has gained 1,448 yards on 100 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 8.2 Yards Per Reception this season — best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Kentucky TEs averaged 19.9 yards per reception (576 yards/29 catches) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas WRs have averaged 22.3 yards per reception (757 yards/34 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.5

Texas WRs have averaged 22.3 yards per reception (757 yards/34 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6

Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky has sacked opponents 11 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the SEC

Kentucky tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 26 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 62 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 16%.

Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 62 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 32 of 143 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas has allowed just 8.2 yards per completion (1,365 yards/167 completions) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11.6

Texas has allowed just 8.2 yards per completion (1,365 yards/167 completions) this season– best in FBS; Average: 11.8

Texas opponents has averaged 95.7 Passing Attempts per TD (287 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.4

Texas opponents has averaged 10.0 Passing Attempts per TD (20 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Texas opponents has averaged 95.7 Passing Attempts per TD (287 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 26.3