- Louisville is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Kentucky
- Louisville vs. Kentucky Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Louisville Cardinals (7-4) visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (4-7) on Nov. 30 in Lexington, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.
Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Louisville vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Louisville vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Louisville | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -175 |
| Kentucky | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +145 |
Louisville vs Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Louisville vs Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+10.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kentucky have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Louisville players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Louisville Player Prop Bets Today
- Isaac Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Chris Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Ja’Corey Brooks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ja’Corey Brooks has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
- Chris Bell has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brock Vandagriff has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brock Vandagriff has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.65 Units / -13.58% ROI).
- Louisville is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.4 Units / -11.63% ROI
- Louisville is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
- Louisville is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kentucky is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).
- Kentucky is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.85 Units / -9.77% ROI
- Kentucky is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
- Kentucky is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky
Louisville is 5-2 (.714) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489
Louisville is 15-6 (.714) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Louisville is 13-6 (.684) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: .526
Louisville is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .613
Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
Kentucky is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
Kentucky is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .423
Kentucky is 1-6 (.143) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471
Kentucky is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .432
Matchup Notes for Louisville vs. Kentucky
Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.7% of 664 attempts since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.7% of attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Kentucky’s TEs has 25 receptions in 11 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — worst among SEC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 20.6 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.
Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 287 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.5% of attempts this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 3,141 passing yards in 11 games (285.5 YPG) this season — T-13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 188.7 passing yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville has gained 6,443 yards on 511 receptions (12.6 YPR) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 383 attempts this season — T-30th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.4% of attempts this season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 3,141 passing yards in 11 games (285.5 YPG) this season — T-13th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 188.7 passing yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville has gained 6,443 yards on 511 receptions (12.6 YPR) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.3% of 383 attempts this season — T-30th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.4% of attempts this season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has averaged 13.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 11.0 RAC since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s QBs has thrown for 3,141 passing yards in 11 games (285.5 YPG) this season — 13th-best among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 188.7 passing yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.7% of 664 attempts since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.7% of attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Kentucky TEs have caught just 3 of 10 passes (30% Reception Pct) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 67%
Kentucky QBs have 11 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Kentucky’s TEs has 25 receptions in 11 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — worst among SEC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 20.6 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.
Kentucky TEs averaged 19.9 yards per reception (576 yards/29 catches) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6
Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has tackled opponents for a loss on 153 of 814 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Louisville has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 53 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 10th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (54 completions/114 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (49 completions/106 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 58%
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (72 completions/134 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– 21st-best in FBS; Average: 60%
Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky has sacked opponents 11 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the SEC
Kentucky forced 4 fumbles last week– most in the SEC
Kentucky’s opponents has attempted just 23.7 passes per game this season– lowest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 31.0
Kentucky tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 47 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 16%.
Kentucky has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (24/261) this season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: 7%
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