Minnesota vs Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 01, 2024, 3:24 PM

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Illinois head coach Bret Bielema watches from the sideline during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023, in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 15-13. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Minnesota is a -3 point favorite vs. Illinois
Minnesota vs. Illinois Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3) visit Memorial Stadium to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (6-2) on Nov. 2 in Champaign, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Minnesota is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Minnesota vs. Illinois Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Minnesota vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Minnesota	-3 -110	45.5 -110	-155
Illinois	+3 -110	45.5 -110	+130

Minnesota vs Illinois Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 57.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Minnesota and Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Minnesota vs Illinois Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Minnesota Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Minnesota have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.55 Units / 4% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Illinois have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Minnesota players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Minnesota Player Prop Bets Today

Max Brosmer has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Darius Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jameson Geers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Daniel Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Elijah Spencer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tanner Arkin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Luke Altmyer has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game at home (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
Luke Altmyer has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaden Feagin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Minnesota is 6-1 against the spread this college football season (+4.85 Units / 54.8% ROI).

Minnesota is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 7.46% ROI
Minnesota is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Minnesota is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 31.82% ROI).

Illinois is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 5.56% ROI
Illinois is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
Illinois is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

Minnesota is 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .447

Minnesota is 1-5 (.167) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .357

Minnesota is 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .495

Minnesota is 4-1 (.800) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .596

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota

Illinois is 11-4 (.733) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Illinois is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-14th-best in FBS; Average: .640

Illinois is 11-1 (.917) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .785

Illinois is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .703

Matchup Notes for Minnesota vs. Illinois

Illinois’s TEs has gained 113 yards on 14 receptions (just 8.1 YPR) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s TEs has gained 113 yards on 14 receptions (just 8.1 YPR) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 7.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Minnesota’s TEs has 20 receptions in 8 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 4.7 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Minnesota has 172 receptions in 8 games (21.5 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed 4.7 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Minnesota has averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed 11.6 RAC this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota WRs had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-most among FBS Teams

Minnesota WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– most among Big Ten Teams

Minnesota WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Minnesota WRs caught 4 touchdown passes last week– most among Power Conference Teams

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Illinois WRs have 19 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among Big Ten Teams

Illinois’s TEs have just 14.1 receiving yards per game this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 26.6 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Minnesota Golden Gophers Defensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (52 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Minnesota has 15 interceptions this season– most in the Big Ten

Minnesota has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 100 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

Minnesota has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 100 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (52 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 26 of 274 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 16%.

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 38 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 13%.

Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 15 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 38 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 39 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) last week– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14%.