Minnesota vs Rutgers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:08 PM

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Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano watches from the sideline during the second half of a NCAA college football game against Ohio State, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023, in Piscataway, N.J. Ohio State won 35-16. (AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

(AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

Minnesota is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Rutgers
Minnesota vs. Rutgers Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: NBC

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-3) visit SHI Stadium to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-4) on Nov. 9 in Piscataway, NJ. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Minnesota is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Minnesota vs. Rutgers Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Minnesota vs. Rutgers Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Minnesota	-6.5 -105	46.5 -110	-250
Rutgers	+6.5 -115	46.5 -110	+195

Minnesota vs Rutgers Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 67.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Minnesota and Rutgers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Minnesota vs Rutgers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Rutgers will cover the spread with 67.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Minnesota Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Minnesota have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Rutgers Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Rutgers has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+2.95 Units / 21% ROI)
Rutgers has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 41% ROI)
Rutgers has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Rutgers has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Rutgers have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Minnesota players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Minnesota Player Prop Bets Today

Daniel Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Elijah Spencer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Darius Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jameson Geers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Max Brosmer has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Rutgers players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rutgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dymere Miller has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kyle Monangai has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Minnesota is 7-1 against the spread this college football season (+5.85 Units / 58.5% ROI).

Minnesota is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 9.32% ROI
Minnesota is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Minnesota is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Rutgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Rutgers is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Rutgers is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Rutgers is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Rutgers is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. Rutgers

Minnesota is 5-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .590

Minnesota is 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Minnesota is 6-4 (.600) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .505

Minnesota is 4-6 (.400) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .538

Rutgers: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota

Rutgers is 1-10 (.091) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .438

Rutgers is 1-10 (.091) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .386

Rutgers is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .508

Rutgers is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .472

Matchup Notes for Minnesota vs. Rutgers

Rutgers has averaged 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big Ten skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC to TEs since the 2023 season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Rutgers’s WRs has gained 1,365 yards on 93 receptions (14.7 YPR) this season — T-24th-best among FBS WRs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 11.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Rutgers’s TEs has gained 174 yards on 25 receptions (just 7.0 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota’s WRs has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Rutgers’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Minnesota has averaged just 10.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Rutgers’s defense has allowed just 10.0 RAC to TEs since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Minnesota’s TEs has 22 receptions in 9 games (just 2.4 per game) this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Rutgers’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota’s WRs has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Rutgers’s defense has allowed just 11.7 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Minnesota has averaged just 10.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among Power 5 skill players. Rutgers’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Rutgers Offensive Stats & Trends

Rutgers TEs have averaged just 7.4 yards per reception (319 yards/43 catches) since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.9

Rutgers’s WRs has gained 1,365 yards on 93 receptions (14.7 YPR) this season — T-24th-best among FBS WRs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Minnesota Golden Gophers Defensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota has allowed a Completion Pct of 91% (20 completions/22 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 64%

Minnesota has averaged 1.67 interceptions per game (15/9) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 0.89

Minnesota has tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 104 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Minnesota did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Minnesota opponents has averaged 43.7 Passing Attempts per TD (262 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) this season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.5

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

Rutgers has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 64 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 11%.

Rutgers has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 21 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 7%.

Rutgers did not record a sack (37 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Rutgers has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 21 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Rutgers has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 21 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.