College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 6

The Pac-12 has real national championship contenders. SEC Football already has contenders on the brink of championship irrelevance. Texas and Oklahoma prepare for their Big 12 swan song.

It’s just another week of college football odds and college football betting.

Today – as I do every Wednesday throughout the college football regular season – I’ve put together a handful of my favorite college football betting predictions for you to consider this weekend. 

College Football Best Bets: Week 6 Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my best plays from the wider canon of college football odds. 

I’ll provide a short explanation why I like each college football bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone. 

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. 

Washington State at UCLA Spread Prediction

I always bet unranked favorites over ranked underdogs, so I am predicting that UCLA wins and covers its 3.5-point spread against Washington State.

As I wrote last week when Kentucky hosted Florida, there isn’t a lot of analysis required when there’s an unranked favorite hosting a ranked road underdog. It’s the most powerful trend in college betting – football and basketball.

Best Bet: UCLA -3.5

Syracuse at North Carolina Spread Prediction

North Carolina is one of the best teams in the ACC and coming off a bye. I am predicting UNC will beat Syracuse and easily cover its 8.5-point spread.

Syracuse is a decent B-tier ACC team, but the Orange showed their limitations last week when they hosted Clemson. A talented, well-coached team can handle them comfortably.

After doubting them early, I really believe this Tar Heels team is one of the best in the ACC, and I believe they should cruise to a double-digit win after an off week. I bet this early at UNC -7, but I’d still happily lay the current number at 8.5.

Best Bet: North Carolina -8.5

Kentucky at Georgia Spread Prediction

Because of Georgia’s continued overvalued status in the ATS market, I am predicting that Kentucky covers its 14.5-point spread as a road dog at Georgia this weekend. 

How many weeks does Georgia have to underperform the market expectations before the market stops overrating them? I don’t know the answer to that, but we clearly haven’t hit the mark yet.

Georgia played its first road game last week at Auburn and probably deserved to lose if not for the late heroics of future NFL tight end Brock Bowers. 

This week, Georgia draws a much better Kentucky team with reliable quarterback play and apt coaching. And Georgia is laying … the exact same number it did last week against Auburn. 

Sure, the Bulldogs are back at home and not on the road, but the larger point still stands. Georgia is 0-5 ATS and will continue to miss covers if it starts slow and stares down huge point spreads. If you want to really flirt with fading Georgia, I’d consider the +450 moneyline here.

Best Bet: Kentucky +14.5; Kentucky +450

“As a General Rule, I am fading Georgia”@chaseakiddy gave his thoughts on Kentucky covering (+14.5) against Georgia this weekend.

FULL EPISODE: https://t.co/mKo5y9AZFv pic.twitter.com/G3vCnLfeE8

— BetMGM Tonight (@BetMGMTonight) October 4, 2023

South Alabama at UL Monroe Spread Prediction

South Alabama just hasn’t lived up to its lofty expectations as the Sun Belt favorite this season, so I am predicting that UL Monroe covers its 11.5-point spread as a home dog.

South Alabama won 10 games last year and entered the season as a +300 favorite to win the top G5 conference in college football. But the Jaguars have been infuriatingly inconsistent, pounding Oklahoma State on the road, but losing to Central Michigan at home.

That inconsistency makes it a liability in the point spread market, which is why UL Monroe is a ripe, off-the-radar bet this week. The Warhawks are improving and catching more than 10 as a home dog. They played a competitive game against App State last week, losing by a single point. I expect a similarly close game this week.

South Alabama played a tough schedule in September, so it’s hard to hold its record up as a big negative. A game against Monroe could be just the kind of get-right smash spot that the coaching staff is looking for.

More likely, though, is a competitive game between two Sun Belt West teams that have seen better days. 

Best Bet: UL Monroe +11.5; UL Monroe +280

LSU at Missouri Spread Prediction

Quarterback Brady Cook should have a field day against LSU’s leaky pass defense, so I am predicting a win and outright cover for the Missouri Tigers against LSU on Saturday. 

I thought Missouri got a little lucky when it beat Kansas State, courtesy of a 60-something-yard walk-off field goal. But no: Mizzou is actually good this year, and Brady Cook’s passing efficiency stats are right up there with pretty much every top Heisman Trophy candidate.

Cook should slice up an LSU passing defense that ranks outside the top 100 in raw yardage numbers. His counterpart, Jayden Daniels, will have a much tougher time against Missouri’s back end.

LSU is the far more desperate team here, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Brian Kelly finds a way to win this game, kitchen-sink style. But the stylistic advantage Missouri will have here attacking the LSU defense means that the backdoor will be open, even if the Tigers are down multiple scores. Personally, I think Missouri is live to win the game at +220.

Best Bet: Missouri +6.5; Missouri +220

Best College Football Parlay This Week

One college football parlay to consider for Week 6 is:

• Clemson -21
• Ohio State -19.5
• Michigan -19.5

This three-leg favorites parlay is currently priced at +595. 

This is pretty square (especially the Michigan leg) but I actually don’t mind it. I think there’s a pretty easy case to make that the favorite is the right side in all three of these games.

Make sure to check out my 2Kparlay later this week. 

College Football Picks Against the Spread

If you like this sort of content, I’d recommend checking out my podcast, The Lion’s Edge, which I host on behalf of our content team here at BetMGM.

Every week, I highlight college football predictions, odds, and betting opportunities that I think are ripe for advantage bettors, like me. 

I also bring on expert guests from both inside and outside of the sportsbook, so you can learn a little bit more about key topics in online sports betting.

Check it out and subscribe on the podcast player of your choice. You can also listen to some of the most recent episodes in the podcast player below.