- The Virginia is a -4.5 point favorite vs. North Carolina
- The North Carolina vs. Virginia Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: CW
The North Carolina Tar Heels (3-4) visit David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (4-3) on Oct. 26 in Charlottesville, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Virginia is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).
The North Carolina vs. Virginia Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
Bet now on Virginia vs North Carolina & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
North Carolina vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Carolina | +4.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | +150 |
| Virginia | -4.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | -185 |
North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 62.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Carolina vs Virginia Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Virginia vs North Carolina and all games with BetMGM
North Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.25 Units / 19% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best North Carolina Player Prop Bets Today
- Omarion Hampton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- J.J. Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Bryson Nesbit has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tyler Neville has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina is 0-6 against the spread this college football season (-6.55 Units / -85.62% ROI).
- North Carolina is 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -21.92% ROI
- North Carolina is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
- North Carolina is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 5-1 against the spread this college football season (+3.9 Units / 50.65% ROI).
- Virginia is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 2.3% ROI
- Virginia is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Virginia is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
North Carolina is 3-7 (.300) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .532
North Carolina is 3-9 (.250) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .441
North Carolina is 3-8 (.273) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .458
North Carolina is 3-8 (.273) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .522
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
Virginia is 1-9 (.100) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527
Virginia is 4-8 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .604
Virginia is 5-12 (.294) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .497
Virginia is 6-12 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .485
Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Virginia
Virginia’s TEs has 44 receptions in 19 games (just 2.3 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 2.4 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s RBs has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch this season — 7th-best among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 14.5 RAC this season — 3rd-worst among P5 defenses.
Virginia’s RBs has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch this season — 7th-best among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 14.5 RAC this season — worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s WRs has gained 1,059 yards on 67 receptions (15.8 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among ACC WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s TEs has 43 receptions in 7 games (6.1 per game) this season — best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s RBs has rushed for 3,125 yards on 552 carries (5.7 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS RBs. Virginia’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 26 times on 3rd down this season– T-most among FBS Teams
North Carolina’s WRs has gained 1,059 yards on 67 receptions (15.8 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among ACC WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s TEs has 43 receptions in 7 games (6.1 per game) this season — best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 11.1 times per game (78/7) this season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
North Carolina’s RBs has rushed for 3,125 yards on 552 carries (5.7 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS RBs. Virginia’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.8 receptions (19 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia’s TEs has 44 receptions in 19 games (just 2.3 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 2.4 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s RBs has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch this season — 7th-best among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 14.5 RAC this season — 3rd-worst among P5 defenses.
Virginia TEs have 9 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Virginia TEs have 9 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams
North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina has intercepted 2 of 206 attempts (103.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 33.4
North Carolina has allowed 5.5 touchdowns per interception (11 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.4
North Carolina has allowed 14.8 yards per completion (1,677 yards/113 completions) this season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4
North Carolina has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 10 of 206 attempts (5%) this season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 2%
North Carolina has allowed 48.9 receiving yards per game (342/7) to RBs this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.0
Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (23/615) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Virginia has no interceptions (68 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 37.7
Virginia averaged a sack every 34.3 pass attempts (377 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8
Virginia has averaged 1.2 sacks per game since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.2
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (23/615) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 7%
Bet now on Virginia vs North Carolina and all games with BetMGM
More College Football Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.
Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.
Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!
