- North Texas is a -1.5 point favorite vs. UTSA
- North Texas vs. UTSA Total (Over/Under): 72.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The North Texas Mean Green (5-4) visit Alamodome to take on the UTSA Roadrunners (4-5) on Nov. 15 in San Antonio, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.
North Texas is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The North Texas vs. UTSA Over/Under is 72.5 total points.
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North Texas vs. UTSA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Texas | -1.5 -110 | 72.5 -110 | -120 |
| UTSA | +1.5 -110 | 72.5 -110 | +100 |
North Texas vs UTSA Prediction:
The winning team model predicts North Texas will win this game with 54.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Texas and UTSA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Texas vs UTSA Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UTSA will cover the spread with 72.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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North Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+3.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- North Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
UTSA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- UTSA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- UTSA has hit the Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- UTSA has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- UTSA have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- UTSA has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 22% ROI)
North Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Texas is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.08% ROI).
- North Texas is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 6.53% ROI
- North Texas is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
- North Texas is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
UTSA Against the Spread (ATS) Record
UTSA is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- UTSA is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -9.27% ROI
- UTSA is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 17.17% ROI
- UTSA is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -25.25% ROI
North Texas: Keys to the Game vs. UTSA
North Texas is 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .432
North Texas is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: .626
North Texas is 4-7 (.364) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 28th-worst in FBS; Average: .505
North Texas is 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .372
UTSA: Keys to the Game vs. North Texas
UTSA is 6-1 (.857) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .488
UTSA is 7-2 (.778) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .522
UTSA is 1-4 (.200) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– 8th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .437
UTSA is 1-4 (.200) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .489
Matchup Notes for North Texas vs. UTSA
UTSA’s offense has thrown for 2,621 passing yards in 9 games (291.2 YPG) this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense has allowed 243.1 passing yards per game this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.
UTSA’s TEs has 63 receptions in 9 games (7.0 per game) this season — 4th-best among FBS TEs. North Texas’s defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
UTSA’s QBs has thrown for 2,594 passing yards in 9 games (288.2 YPG) this season — 13th-best among FBS teams. North Texas’s defense has allowed 243.1 passing yards per game this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Texas’s offense has thrown for 3,187 passing yards in 9 games (354.1 YPG) this season — 3rd-best among FBS offenses. UTSA’s defense has allowed 292.6 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Texas’s QBs has thrown for 3,156 passing yards in 9 games (350.7 YPG) this season — 4th-best among FBS teams. UTSA’s defense has allowed 292.6 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.0% of 393 attempts this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. UTSA’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.5% of attempts this season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Texas Offensive Stats & Trends
North Texas’s offense has thrown for 3,187 passing yards in 9 games (354.1 YPG) this season — 3rd-best among FBS offenses. UTSA’s defense has allowed 292.6 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Texas WRs have averaged 21.8 receptions per game (196/9) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4
North Texas WRs have 28 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
North Texas’s QBs has thrown for 3,156 passing yards in 9 games (350.7 YPG) this season — 4th-best among FBS teams. UTSA’s defense has allowed 292.6 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Texas WRs have 45 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
UTSA Offensive Stats & Trends
UTSA TEs have been targeted 40 times on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams
UTSA TEs have averaged 7.0 receptions per game (63/9) this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
UTSA TEs have been targeted 11.6 times per game (104/9) this season– T-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
UTSA TEs have picked up first downs on 17 receptions on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams
UTSA TEs have 26 receptions on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams
North Texas Mean Green Defensive Stats & Trends
North Texas has forced 2 fumbles on 366 carries (183.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 43.0
North Texas has forced 8 fumbles on 910 carries (113.8 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 41.8
North Texas has forced 2 fumbles on 366 carries (183.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.7
North Texas has forced 8 fumbles on 910 carries (113.8 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 42.2
North Texas allowed 255.2 rushing yards per game (3,062/12) in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 148.1
UTSA Roadrunners Defensive Stats & Trends
UTSA has averaged 3.4 sacks per game since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
UTSA has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 22 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
UTSA has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 22 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
UTSA has tackled opponents for a loss on 15 of 49 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
UTSA has averaged 3.4 sacks per game since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 2.1
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