Oregon vs Wisconsin Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:37 PM

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Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell reacts during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

(AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Oregon is a -14 point favorite vs. Wisconsin
Oregon vs. Wisconsin Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
TV Channel: NBC

The Oregon Ducks (10-0) visit Camp Randall Stadium to take on the Wisconsin Badgers (5-4) on Nov. 16 in Madison, WI. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Oregon is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -14 (-115).

The Oregon vs. Wisconsin Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Oregon vs. Wisconsin Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Oregon	-14 -115	52.5 -115	-650
Wisconsin	+14 -105	52.5 -105	+450

Oregon vs Wisconsin Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 85.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oregon and Wisconsin, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oregon vs Wisconsin Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Wisconsin will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 4% ROI)
Oregon has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Oregon have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.40 Units / 22% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.15 Units / 13% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)

Wisconsin Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Wisconsin has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 36% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Bets Today

Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dillon Gabriel has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tez Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Wisconsin players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Wisconsin Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tyler Van Dyke has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
Tawee Walker has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Will Pauling has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Braedyn Locke has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tyler Van Dyke has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.45 Units / -4.11% ROI).

Oregon is 9-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.5 Units / 5.76% ROI
Oregon is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Oregon is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wisconsin is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Wisconsin is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2% ROI
Wisconsin is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.03% ROI
Wisconsin is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.45 Units / -14.72% ROI

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

Oregon is 12-2 (.857) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .429

Oregon is 11-1 (.917) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .446

Oregon is 11-1 (.917) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .490

Oregon is undefeated (16-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .617

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

Wisconsin is winless (0-8) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .285

Wisconsin is 12-2 (.857) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .752

Wisconsin is undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .675

Wisconsin is 3-7 (.300) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 28th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Matchup Notes for Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s TEs has 23 receptions in 9 games (just 2.6 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 16.8 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs has 23 receptions in 9 games (just 2.6 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 16.8 receptions per game this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.3% of 275 attempts this season — 12th-worst among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s QBs has thrown for 2,877 passing yards in 10 games (287.7 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS teams. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 158.9 passing yards per game this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s TEs has gained 720 yards on 57 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon WRs have averaged 18.3 yards per reception (660 yards/36 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.5

Oregon Skill Players have 91 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Oregon Skill Players have 91 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Oregon TEs were targeted 6 times in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams

Oregon TEs were targeted 14 times last week– most among FBS Teams

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (41 Rec/11 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.1

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (41 Rec/11 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Wisconsin WRs have averaged 27.2 yards per reception (136 yards/5 catches) in short yardage situations this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (41 Rec/11 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (2 completions/8 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

Oregon has allowed opponents to catch just 4 of 12 passes (33% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (24 completions/50 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 63%

Oregon opponents has averaged 43.9 Passing Attempts per TD (307 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.4

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 55% (168 completions/307 attempts) this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 61%

Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Wisconsin has intercepted 3 of 228 attempts (76.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.2

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Wisconsin has intercepted 3 of 228 attempts (76.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 34.3

Wisconsin has sacked opposing QBs just once on 65 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.6