Penn State vs Purdue Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:27 PM

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Purdue defensive end Kydran Jenkins (44) reacts during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Indiana, Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in Bloomington, Ind. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Penn State is a -28.5 point favorite vs. Purdue
Penn State vs. Purdue Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
TV Channel: CBS

The Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) visit Ross-Ade Stadium to take on the Purdue Boilermakers (1-8) on Nov. 16 in West Lafayette, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Penn State is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -28.5 (-115).

The Penn State vs. Purdue Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Penn State vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Penn State	-28.5 -115	50.5 -105	-10000
Purdue	+28.5 -105	50.5 -115	+2000

Penn State vs Purdue Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn State and Purdue, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Penn State vs Purdue Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Purdue will cover the spread with 70.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 0% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+3.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Penn State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)

Purdue Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Purdue has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 19% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Penn State Player Prop Bets Today

Harrison Wallace III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Drew Allar has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Julian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Tyler Warren has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Purdue players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Purdue Player Prop Best Bets Today

Devin Mockobee has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Max Klare has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Devin Mockobee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Jahmal Edrine has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI).

Penn State is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 0.51% ROI
Penn State is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
Penn State is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI).

Purdue is 0-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -100% ROI
Purdue is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Purdue is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Penn State is undefeated (6-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .499

Penn State is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .675

Penn State is 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .656

Penn State is 17-1 (.944) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: .752

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Purdue is winless (0-5) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Purdue is winless (0-11) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .385

Purdue is winless (0-11) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .435

Purdue is 3-9 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .596

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Purdue

Purdue’s QBs has thrown for 1,586 passing yards in 9 games (just 176.2 YPG) this season — 18th-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 169.2 passing yards per game this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue’s TEs has gained 571 yards on 43 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue’s TEs has gained 571 yards on 43 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has gained 1,180 yards on 70 receptions (16.9 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-34th-worst among FBS defenses.

Penn State has gained 2,236 yards on 170 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten skill players. Purdue’s defense has allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-34th-worst among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has gained 1,180 yards on 70 receptions (16.9 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 14.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State WRs have averaged 30.3 yards per reception (91 yards/3 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6

Penn State WRs have averaged 30.3 yards per reception (91 yards/3 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.7

Penn State WRs have averaged 30.3 yards per reception (91 yards/3 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 14.0

Penn State TEs have been targeted 41 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Penn State TEs have caught 22 touchdown passes since the 2023 season– most among Big Ten Teams

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.8% of 230 attempts this season — T-20th-worst among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 33 carries (16.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (72/600) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (72/600) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (72/600) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue has allowed 14.3 yards per completion (5,117 yards/359 completions) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 11.0

Purdue has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 86 of 610 attempts (14%) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Purdue has allowed 14.0 yards per completion (2,219 yards/158 completions) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9

Purdue has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 33 of 242 attempts (14%) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Purdue has forced 2 fumbles on 356 carries (178.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 48.4