- Louisville is a -8.5 point favorite vs. Pitt
- Pittsburgh vs. Louisville Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The Pittsburgh Panthers (7-3) visit L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium to take on the Louisville Cardinals (6-4) on Nov. 23 in Louisville, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.
Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).
The Pittsburgh vs. Louisville Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Pittsburgh vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Pittsburgh | +8.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +240 |
| Louisville | -8.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -300 |
Pittsburgh vs Louisville Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 71.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Pitt and Louisville, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Pittsburgh vs Louisville Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 77.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Pittsburgh Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+1.95 Units / 3% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.35 Units / 1% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Pittsburgh players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pittsburgh Player Prop Bets Today
- Desmond Reid has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Konata Mumpfield has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Eli Holstein has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kenny Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Eli Holstein has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Louisville players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Louisville Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Ja’Corey Brooks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Chris Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Isaac Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Ja’Corey Brooks has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
- Chris Bell has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Pitt is 7-3 against the spread this college football season (+3.65 Units / 33.03% ROI).
- Pittsburgh is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 2.97% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.65 Units / -23.98% ROI).
- Louisville is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.4 Units / -13.01% ROI
- Louisville is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
- Louisville is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
Pittsburgh is 6-6 (.500) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .619
Pittsburgh is 1-7 (.125) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .439
Pittsburgh is 2-7 (.222) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .448
Pittsburgh is 7-2 (.778) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .669
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh
Louisville is 13-6 (.684) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .526
Louisville is 13-6 (.684) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .536
Louisville is 15-2 (.882) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .697
Louisville is 15-2 (.882) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 13th-best in FBS; Average: .641
Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh vs. Louisville
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 2,848 passing yards in 10 games (284.8 YPG) this season — 15th-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 255.3 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s QBs has thrown for 2,848 passing yards in 10 games (284.8 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 255.3 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 2,848 passing yards in 10 games (284.8 YPG) this season — 15th-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 255.3 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s RBs has averaged 11.8 yards after the catch this season — 11th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 11.2 RAC this season — T-5th-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s WRs has averaged 24.1 targets per game this season — T-29th-highest among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 14.0 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh has 23 receiving touchdowns this season — 4th-most among ACC skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed 17 receiving touchdowns this season — T-4th-most among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh RBs have picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams
Pittsburgh RBs have averaged 9.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (695 yards / 76 touches) on 2nd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
Pittsburgh Skill Players have caught 10 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Pittsburgh RBs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Pittsburgh Skill Players were targeted 23 times in close and late situations last week– most among FBS Teams
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 2,848 passing yards in 10 games (284.8 YPG) this season — 15th-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 255.3 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s QBs has thrown for 2,848 passing yards in 10 games (284.8 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS teams. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 255.3 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 2,848 passing yards in 10 games (284.8 YPG) this season — 15th-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 255.3 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s TEs has 47 receptions in 10 games (4.7 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 22.0 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.
Louisville’s TEs has 47 receptions in 10 games (4.7 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 4.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 24 of 115 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh tackled opponents for a loss on 10 of 27 rushing attempts (37% TFL%) last week– best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 24 of 115 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh tackled opponents for a loss on 10 of 27 rushing attempts (37% TFL%) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Pittsburgh has allowed 1.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (51 yards / 28 touches) on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.1
Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has allowed 5.7 touchdowns per interception (17 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6
Louisville has intercepted 3 of 331 attempts (110.3 pass attempts per int.) this season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 36.2
Louisville has allowed 5.7 touchdowns per interception (17 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.7
Louisville has intercepted 3 of 331 attempts (110.3 pass attempts per int.) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9
Louisville allowed 4 TD passes last week– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
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