- The South Alabama is a -3 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- The South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Total (Over/Under): 62 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The South Alabama Jaguars (2-3) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2) on Oct. 5 in Jonesboro, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
South Alabama is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 62 total points.
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South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| South Alabama | -3 -105 | 62 -110 | -150 |
| Arkansas State | +3 -115 | 62 -110 | +125 |
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts South Alabama will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both South Alabama and Arkansas St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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South Alabama Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- South Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- South Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- South Alabama have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- South Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+3.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.65 Units / 14% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for South Alabama players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best South Alabama Player Prop Bets Today
- Jamaal Pritchett has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Javon Ivory has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
- Braylon McReynolds has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Arkansas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Arkansas State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Corey Rucker has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Courtney Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jaylen Raynor has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
South Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record
South Alabama is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.25 Units / -23.15% ROI).
- South Alabama is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -33.64% ROI
- South Alabama is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- South Alabama is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 10.15% ROI
- Arkansas State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.15 Units / -26.74% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.85 Units / 18.89% ROI
South Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
South Alabama is winless (0-5) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .506
South Alabama is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
South Alabama is winless (0-9) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .284
South Alabama is 3-9 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .440
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. South Alabama
Arkansas State is undefeated (8-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
Arkansas State is undefeated (8-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .719
Arkansas State is 4-2 (.667) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .506
Arkansas State is 7-3 (.700) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551
Matchup Notes for South Alabama vs. Arkansas State
Arkansas State’s WRs has gained 3,196 yards on 200 receptions (16.0 YPR) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s WRs has gained 3,196 yards on 200 receptions (16.0 YPR) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 14.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has gained 3,819 yards on 287 receptions (13.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama’s RBs has rushed for 2,851 yards on 507 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.5 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama’s QBs has thrown for 4,778 passing yards in 18 games (265.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 27th-best among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 244.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama’s offense has thrown for 4,778 passing yards in 18 games (265.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 244.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends
South Alabama’s RBs has rushed for 2,851 yards on 507 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.5 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama’s QBs has thrown for 4,778 passing yards in 18 games (265.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 27th-best among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 244.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama QBs have 5 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
South Alabama’s offense has thrown for 4,778 passing yards in 18 games (265.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 244.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Alabama has 391 receptions in 18 games (21.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 31st-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State’s WRs has gained 3,196 yards on 200 receptions (16.0 YPR) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State WRs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State’s WRs has gained 3,196 yards on 200 receptions (16.0 YPR) since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 14.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has gained 3,819 yards on 287 receptions (13.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State RBs have averaged just 3.4 Yards per Carry (281 yards/82 carries) this season– T-4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
South Alabama Jaguars Defensive Stats & Trends
South Alabama has averaged a sack every 44.2 pass attempts (177 Pass Attempts/4 Sacks) this season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.8
South Alabama has allowed first downs on 9% of rush attempts in close and late situations since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%
South Alabama has averaged a sack every 44.2 pass attempts (177 Pass Attempts/4 Sacks) this season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.1
South Alabama has allowed 74 first down receptions this season– most in FBS
South Alabama did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4
Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (6 completions/20 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (6 completions/20 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 62%
Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Arkansas State has no interceptions (58 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.9
Arkansas State has allowed 228.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 137.1
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