Syracuse vs California Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:17 PM

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California head coach Justin Wilcox stands on the sidelines during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Stanford in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

(AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

California is a -8.5 point favorite vs. Syracuse
Syracuse vs. California Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: CW

The Syracuse Orange (6-3) visit California Memorial Stadium to take on the California Golden Bears (5-4) on Nov. 16 in Berkeley, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST.

California is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).

The Syracuse vs. California Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Syracuse vs. California Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Syracuse	+8.5 -115	55.5 -110	+260
California	-8.5 -105	55.5 -110	-350

Syracuse vs California Prediction:

The winning team model predicts California will win this game with 69.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Syracuse and California, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Syracuse vs California Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts California will cover the spread with 61.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Syracuse Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Syracuse has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Syracuse has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Syracuse has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

California Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

California has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
California has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.80 Units / 34% ROI)
California has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
California has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.15 Units / 9% ROI)
California have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Syracuse players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Syracuse Player Prop Bets Today

Trebor Pena has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
LeQuint Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kyle McCord has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Oronde Gadsden II has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)
LeQuint Allen has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for California players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best California Player Prop Best Bets Today

Nyziah Hunter has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Trond Grizzell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jack Endries has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Fernando Mendoza has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Fernando Mendoza has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Syracuse Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Syracuse is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.08% ROI).

Syracuse is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 3.51% ROI
Syracuse is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Syracuse is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

California Against the Spread (ATS) Record

California is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.75 Units / 27.92% ROI).

California is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 3.17% ROI
California is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -25.25% ROI
California is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 17.17% ROI

Syracuse: Keys to the Game vs. California

Syracuse is undefeated (6-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .587

Syracuse is winless (0-2) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .522

Syracuse is 9-4 (.692) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .606

Syracuse is 2-8 (.200) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510

California: Keys to the Game vs. Syracuse

California is 3-6 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .596

California is 6-11 (.353) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

California is 5-11 (.312) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .424

California is 6-11 (.353) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510

Matchup Notes for Syracuse vs. California

California’s offense has thrown for 2,513 passing yards in 9 games (279.2 YPG) this season — 20th-best among FBS offenses. Syracuse’s defense has allowed just 198.9 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.

California’s QBs has thrown for 2,513 passing yards in 9 games (279.2 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS teams. Syracuse’s defense has allowed just 198.9 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.

California have 277.2 receiving yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS skill players. Syracuse’s defense has allowed just 198.9 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.

Syracuse’s RBs has rushed for 848 yards on 196 carries (just 4.3 YPC) this season — 26th-worst among FBS RBs. California’s defense have allowed just 3.1 YPC this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Syracuse’s RBs have 47.8 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS RBs. California’s defense has allowed 30.9 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Syracuse’s RBs has rushed for 848 yards on 196 carries (just 4.3 YPC) this season — 26th-worst among FBS RBs. California’s defense have allowed just 4.4 YPC to RBs this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Syracuse Offensive Stats & Trends

Syracuse Skill Players have been targeted 46.6 times per game (419/9) this season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.2

Syracuse TEs were targeted 8 times in the 4th quarter last week– most among Power Conference Teams

Syracuse TEs had 6 receptions in the 4th quarter last week– most among Power Conference Teams

Syracuse TEs were targeted 7 times on 1st down last week– most among Power Conference Teams

Syracuse Skill Players have averaged 30.8 receptions per game (277/9) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 18.8

California Offensive Stats & Trends

California WRs had 6 receptions in the Red Zone last week– most among Power Conference Teams

California Skill Players had 7 receptions in the Red Zone last week– most among Power Conference Teams

California WRs had 6 receptions in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams

Syracuse Orange Defensive Stats & Trends

Syracuse has allowed a Completion Pct of just 23% (4 completions/17 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Syracuse allowed 331.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last week– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 139.7

Syracuse has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 1 of 88 attempts (1%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 9%

Syracuse has tackled opponents for a loss on 25 of 111 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Syracuse has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 1 of 88 attempts (1%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

California Golden Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 96 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 96 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

California has averaged 1.89 interceptions per game (17/9) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 0.90

California has averaged 1.89 interceptions per game (17/9) this season– best in FBS; Average: 0.85

California had no interceptions and 21 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1