Texas A&M vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Las Vegas Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 12:00 PM

min read

Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley watches during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

Texas A&M is a -3.5 point favorite vs. USC
Texas A&M vs. USC Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the USC Trojans (6-6) on Dec. 27 in Paradise, NV. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EST.

Texas A&M is a betting favorite in the Las Vegas Bowl, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Texas A&M vs. USC Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

Bet now on USC vs Texas A&M & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Texas A&M vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texas A&M	-3.5 -105	51.5 -110	-165
USC	+3.5 -115	51.5 -110	+140

Texas A&M vs USC Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas A&M will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas A&M and USC, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Texas A&M vs USC Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts USC will cover the spread with 59.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on USC vs Texas A&M and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Texas A&M Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas A&M has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 49% ROI)

USC Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

USC have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
USC has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 60% ROI)
USC has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.65 Units / 3% ROI)
USC has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
USC have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas A&M players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas A&M Player Prop Bets Today

Conner Weigman has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Le’Veon Moss has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Amari Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Le’Veon Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Le’Veon Moss has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for USC players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best USC Player Prop Best Bets Today

Makai Lemon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kyron Hudson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ja’Kobi Lane has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Zachariah Branch has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Woody Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Texas A&M Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas A&M is 3-9 against the spread this college football season (-6.9 Units / -52.67% ROI).

Texas A&M is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 1.54% ROI
Texas A&M is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Texas A&M is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC is 7-5 against the spread this college football season (+1.5 Units / 11.32% ROI).

USC is 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -3.31% ROI
USC is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
USC is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Texas A&M: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Texas A&M is 4-7 (.333) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .440

Texas A&M is 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-14th-best in FBS; Average: .611

Texas A&M is 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .687

Texas A&M is 12-1 (.923) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .638

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Texas A&M

USC is 5-9 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .503

USC is 1-4 (.200) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .487

USC is 5-9 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .522

USC was 2-5 (.250) when not forcing a fumble in the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

Matchup Notes for Texas A&M vs. USC

USC’s WRs has 476 receptions in 25 games (19.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Power 5 WRs. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 11.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s WRs has 476 receptions in 25 games (19.0 per game) since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten WRs. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

USC has averaged 12.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among Big Ten skill players. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M’s TEs has gained 443 yards on 30 receptions (14.8 YPR) this season — best among SEC TEs. USC’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Texas A&M’s TEs has 30 receptions in 12 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. USC’s defense has allowed 4.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — worst among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M’s WRs has gained 4,235 yards on 311 receptions (just 13.6 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. USC’s defense has allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M’s WRs has averaged just 12.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among SEC WRs. USC’s defense has allowed 11.1 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Texas A&M’s WRs has gained 1,581 yards on 122 receptions (just 13.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among SEC WRs. USC’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC has 626 receptions in 25 games (25.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Power 5 skill players. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.

Texas A&M Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M has sacked opposing QBs just once on 65 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 13.4

Texas A&M tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%.

Texas A&M has tackled opponents for a loss on 8 of 43 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 11%.

Texas A&M has sacked opposing QBs just once on 65 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 12th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Texas A&M tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

USC Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

USC allowed 4.4 touchdowns per interception (31 TDs allowed, and 7 INT) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7

USC has not allowed an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 11 carries on 3rd and long this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 18%

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 66% (536 completions/809 attempts) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 87% (20 completions/23 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

USC allowed 12 TDs in close and late situations in the 2023 season– most in the Big Ten