Texas vs Arkansas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:12 PM

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Arkansas tight end Luke Hasz (9) pulls in a touchdown reception in the second half of an NCAA college football game against LSU in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023. LSU won 34-31. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Texas is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas
Texas vs. Arkansas Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Texas Longhorns (8-1) visit Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) on Nov. 16 in Fayetteville, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Texas vs. Arkansas Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Texas vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texas	-13.5 -110	57.5 -110	-550
Arkansas	+13.5 -110	57.5 -110	+400

Texas vs Arkansas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 86.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas and Arkansas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Texas vs Arkansas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 83.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 1% ROI)
Texas have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Arkansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Arkansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Arkansas has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+3.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 45% ROI)
Arkansas have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Bets Today

Quintrevion Wisner has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 76% ROI)
Matthew Golden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaydon Blue has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaydon Blue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Arkansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Arkansas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tyrone Broden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Luke Hasz has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Braylen Russell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Texas is 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 0.41% ROI
Texas is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI
Texas is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Arkansas is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 11.13% ROI
Arkansas is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Arkansas is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

Texas is 5-1 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .499

Texas is 14-2 (.875) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .537

Texas is 17-1 (.944) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .674

Texas is 11-3 (.786) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Arkansas is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .699

Arkansas is winless (0-9) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .463

Arkansas is winless (0-9) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .440

Arkansas is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .450

Matchup Notes for Texas vs. Arkansas

Arkansas’s QBs has thrown for 2,630 passing yards in 9 games (292.2 YPG) this season — 11th-best among FBS teams. Texas’s defense has allowed just 135.1 passing yards per game this season — best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas has gained 2,629 yards on 186 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-10th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception this season — best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.6% of 295 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts this season — best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s offense has thrown for 2,709 passing yards in 9 games (301.0 YPG) this season — 10th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 266.2 passing yards per game this season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas’s QBs has thrown for 2,679 passing yards in 9 games (297.7 YPG) this season — 10th-best among FBS teams. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 266.2 passing yards per game this season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas have 301.0 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 266.2 receiving yards per game this season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas QBs had 9 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most among FBS Teams

Texas WRs have 22 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among SEC Teams

Texas WRs have averaged 22.7 yards per reception (750 yards/33 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6

Texas RBs have been targeted 8.9 times per game (80/9) this season– 4th-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas WRs have averaged a touchdown every 25.8 receptions (129 Rec/5 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 11.0

Arkansas TEs have averaged 22.1 yards per reception (287 yards/13 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7

Arkansas TEs have averaged 33.2 yards per reception (133 yards/4 catches) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 13.2

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents has averaged 87.3 Passing Attempts per TD (262 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.4

Texas opponents has averaged 87.3 Passing Attempts per TD (262 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 26.4

Texas opponents has averaged 10.0 Passing Attempts per TD (20 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Texas has allowed just 8.1 yards per completion (1,216 yards/150 completions) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11.6

Texas has allowed just 8.1 yards per completion (1,216 yards/150 completions) this season– best in FBS; Average: 11.8

Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 55 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 10%.

Arkansas has no interceptions and 8 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 4.6

Arkansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 55 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Arkansas has no interceptions and 22 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 8.5

Arkansas has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 20 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.