Troy vs UL Lafayette Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

Louisiana head coach Michael Desormeaux walks the field before an NCAA college football game against Florida State on Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
(AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
  • UL Lafayette is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Troy
  • Troy vs. Louisiana Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The Troy Trojans (3-7) visit Cajun Field to take on the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (8-2) on Nov. 23 in Lafayette, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST.

UL Lafayette is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Troy vs. Louisiana Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Troy vs. Louisiana Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Troy+10.5 -11053.5 -110+310
Louisiana -10.5 -11053.5 -110-400

Troy vs Louisiana Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Louisiana will win this game with 79.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Troy and UL Lafayette, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Troy vs Louisiana Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisiana will cover the spread with 87.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+7.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Troy have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Louisiana have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Louisiana has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.15 Units / 10% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Troy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Troy Player Prop Bets Today

  • Landon Parker has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Devonte Ross has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Zeriah Beason has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Damien Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Peyton Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Louisiana players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Louisiana Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Ben Wooldridge has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Ben Wooldridge has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Terrance Carter has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Lance LeGendre has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jacob Bernard has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI).

  • Troy is 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -15.48% ROI
  • Troy is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Troy is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Louisiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UL Lafayette is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.45 Units / -4.11% ROI).

  • Louisiana is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 14.24% ROI
  • Louisiana is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Louisiana is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Louisiana

Troy is 12-4 (.750) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .633

Troy is 11-3 (.786) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 37th-best in FBS; Average: .669

Troy is 13-5 (.722) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .554

Troy is 13-2 (.867) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 32nd-best in FBS; Average: .752

Louisiana: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Louisiana is 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 21st-best in FBS; Average: .607

Louisiana is 8-2 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .569

Louisiana is 8-2 (.800) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .583

Louisiana is 7-1 (.875) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

Matchup Notes for Troy vs. Louisiana

Louisiana’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.3% of 301 attempts this season — T-19th-best among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s TEs have 77.1 receiving yards per game this season — T-5th-best among FBS TEs. Troy’s defense has allowed just 20.1 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s QBs has 1 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS teams. Troy’s defense has allowed 2.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy’s RBs has averaged 10.3 yards after the catch this season — 21st-best among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy’s RBs has averaged 10.3 yards after the catch this season — 21st-best among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC this season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Troy’s RBs has gained 155 yards on 15 receptions (10.3 YPR) this season — 22nd-best among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Troy Offensive Stats & Trends

Troy’s RBs has averaged 10.3 yards after the catch this season — 21st-best among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy WRs had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-most among FBS Teams

Troy’s RBs has averaged 10.3 yards after the catch this season — 21st-best among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC this season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Troy’s RBs has gained 155 yards on 15 receptions (10.3 YPR) this season — 22nd-best among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Troy’s RBs has gained 155 yards on 15 receptions (10.3 YPR) this season — 22nd-best among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana RBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Louisiana’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.3% of 301 attempts this season — T-19th-best among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisiana QBs have rushed for 5 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Louisiana Skill Players had 128 receiving yards in close and late situations last week– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

Louisiana QBs have rushed for 5 TDs in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

Troy Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

Troy has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (500 yards / 183 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Troy opponents has averaged 32.4 Passing Attempts per TD (712 Pass Attempts/22 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.2

Troy sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Troy has allowed 2.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (177 yards / 74 touches) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.8

Troy has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (500 yards / 183 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 3.8

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Louisiana sacked opponents 8 times in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Louisiana allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (5 completions/20 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 55%

Louisiana has tackled opponents for a loss on just 36 of 331 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Louisiana sacked opponents 8 times in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most in FBS


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