Vanderbilt vs LSU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:14 PM

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LSU running back Kaleb Jackson (28) signals while watching a replay during the first half of an NCAA football game against Mississippi on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in Oxford, Miss. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

LSU is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt vs. LSU Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: SECN

The Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) visit Tiger Stadium to take on the LSU Tigers (6-4) on Nov. 23 in Baton Rouge, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45pm EST.

LSU is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-115).

The Vanderbilt vs. LSU Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Vanderbilt vs. LSU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Vanderbilt	+7.5 -105	53.5 -110	+240
LSU	-7.5 -115	53.5 -110	-300

Vanderbilt vs LSU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 72.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Vanderbilt and LSU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Vanderbilt vs LSU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts LSU will cover the spread with 66.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Vanderbilt Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+13.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+11.60 Units / 39% ROI)
Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 24% ROI)

LSU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
LSU has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.75 Units / 6% ROI)
LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.70 Units / 16% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Vanderbilt players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Bets Today

Diego Pavia has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.65 Units / 83% ROI)
Quincy Skinner Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Diego Pavia has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Diego Pavia has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Junior Sherrill has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for LSU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best LSU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kyren Lacy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Garrett Nussmeier has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Aaron Anderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt is 7-3 against the spread this college football season (+3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI).

Vanderbilt is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.95 Units / 29.66% ROI
Vanderbilt is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 5.45% ROI
Vanderbilt is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -13.64% ROI

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU is 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.65 Units / -42.47% ROI).

LSU is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.45% ROI
LSU is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.75 Units / -42.99% ROI
LSU is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.79% ROI

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Vanderbilt is 4-12 (.250) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489

Vanderbilt is 4-11 (.267) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510

Vanderbilt is 4-11 (.267) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .455

Vanderbilt is 3-13 (.188) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

LSU is 13-2 (.867) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .651

LSU is 11-5 (.688) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489

LSU is 14-3 (.824) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 18th-best in FBS; Average: .598

LSU is 5-2 (.714) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .583

Matchup Notes for Vanderbilt vs. LSU

LSU’s TEs has 58 receptions in 10 games (5.8 per game) this season — best among SEC TEs. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 19.4 receptions per game this season — T-4th-worst among SEC defenses.

LSU’s QBs has thrown for 3,163 passing yards in 10 games (316.3 YPG) this season — 8th-best among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 227.1 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

LSU’s TEs has 58 receptions in 10 games (5.8 per game) this season — T-4th-best among P5 TEs. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 4.4 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt has gained 1,869 yards on 143 receptions (13.1 YPR) this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s RBs has averaged 12.4 yards after the catch this season — 8th-best among FBS RBs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC this season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s TEs has gained 647 yards on 50 receptions (12.9 YPR) this season — 5th-best among SEC TEs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt’s RBs has averaged 12.4 yards after the catch this season — 8th-best among FBS RBs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC this season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among SEC Teams

Vanderbilt TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged 72.7 rushing yards per game (727/10) this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 127.0

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

LSU WRs have 31 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

LSU QBs have 122 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

LSU Skill Players have 34 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

LSU Skill Players have 34 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

LSU WRs have 31 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt has sacked opposing QBs on just 6% of pass attempts (42/714) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 8%

Vanderbilt has allowed a Completion Pct of 68% (484 completions/714 attempts) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Vanderbilt has tackled opponents for a loss on 59 of 312 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) this season– 5th-best in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Vanderbilt has tackled opponents for a loss on 59 of 312 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) this season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Vanderbilt has allowed a Completion Pct of 68% (484 completions/714 attempts) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 61%

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

LSU allowed 11.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (339 yards / 30 touches) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 6.2

LSU allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 2 of their 17 carries (12%) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

LSU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (5 completions/16 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 54%

LSU allowed 11.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (339 yards / 30 touches) last week– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.8

LSU has allowed 22 rushing TDs this season– most in the SEC