Wisconsin vs Nebraska Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:15 PM

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Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule reacts during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Minnesota, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

Nebraska is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
TV Channel: BTN

The Wisconsin Badgers (5-5) visit Tom Osborne Field at Memorial Stadium to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-5) on Nov. 23 in Lincoln, NE. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Nebraska is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Wisconsin vs. Nebraska Over/Under is 42.5 total points.

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Wisconsin vs. Nebraska Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Wisconsin	+2.5 -105	42.5 -110	+115
Nebraska	-2.5 -115	42.5 -110	-135

Wisconsin vs Nebraska Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Nebraska will win this game with 57.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Wisconsin and Nebraska, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Wisconsin vs Nebraska Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Nebraska will cover the spread with 60.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Wisconsin Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Wisconsin has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+13.45 Units / 35% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Wisconsin have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)

Nebraska Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Nebraska has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.75 Units / 14% ROI)
Nebraska have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Nebraska have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.55 Units / 7% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Wisconsin players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Wisconsin Player Prop Bets Today

Tyler Van Dyke has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
Tawee Walker has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Chez Mellusi has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Braedyn Locke has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Bryson Green has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Nebraska players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nebraska Player Prop Best Bets Today

Emmett Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Thomas Fidone II has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Rahmir Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dylan Raiola has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Janiran Bonner has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wisconsin is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Wisconsin is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Wisconsin is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.52% ROI
Wisconsin is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.45 Units / -4.11% ROI

Nebraska Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nebraska is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.48% ROI).

Nebraska is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -9.65% ROI
Nebraska is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Nebraska is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. Nebraska

Wisconsin is 8-2 (.800) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .635

Wisconsin is 8-11 (.421) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 37th-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Wisconsin is 9-2 (.818) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 26th-best in FBS; Average: .641

Wisconsin is winless (0-8) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .284

Nebraska: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

Nebraska is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Nebraska is winless (0-6) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .352

Nebraska is 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .587

Nebraska is 2-7 (.222) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527

Matchup Notes for Wisconsin vs. Nebraska

Nebraska has gained 2,222 yards on 212 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.

Nebraska’s WRs has gained 1,545 yards on 130 receptions (just 11.9 YPR) this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.

Nebraska has gained 2,222 yards on 212 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) this season — T-8th-worst among FBS skill players. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 19th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs has gained 169 yards on 24 receptions (just 7.0 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs has gained 169 yards on 24 receptions (just 7.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among P5 TEs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.9% of 303 attempts this season — 9th-worst among FBS offenses. Nebraska’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts this season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin TEs have averaged 29.5 yards per reception (59 yards/2 catches) with over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.0

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.6 receptions (43 Rec/12 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.1

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged just 8.9 yards per reception (925 yards/104 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.7

Wisconsin TEs have averaged 29.5 yards per reception (59 yards/2 catches) with over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.4

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 19.6 receptions (451 Rec/23 TDs) since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4

Nebraska Offensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska TEs have no touchdowns on 34 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Nebraska RBs have fumbled 6 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin has sacked opposing QBs just once on 68 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.5

Wisconsin has allowed first downs on 58% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 31%

Wisconsin has sacked opposing QBs just once on 68 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Wisconsin has sacked opposing QBs just once on 68 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Nebraska Cornhuskers Defensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska has no interceptions and 13 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.7

Nebraska has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 313 carries (52.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Nebraska has allowed 15 rushing TDs on 689 carries (45.9 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 23.6

Nebraska has no interceptions and 13 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.0

Nebraska has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 36 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.